Brock Purdy Deep Dive ⚒️

It’s time for the Pit Stop, the most comprehensive look into some of dynasty fantasy football’s biggest names that you’ll find anywhere on the world wide web. This week we determine just how golden the Niner’s new highest paid player is going forward. Let’s hit the Detour.

— DynastyDetourRyan

⚒️ Under The Hood: Brock Purdy

Mr. Irrelevant got PAID this offseason and can now finally afford to live in the city he plays in, but is he worth shelling out for in dynasty?

Purdy came into the league with nothing in the way of expectations, but that all changed halfway through his rookie year as injuries deposed Jimmy Garoppolo and Trey Lance, thrusting the last pick of the draft into a role he never handed back. We’ve all heard his story a million times I’m not sure why I’m telling it. The fact of the matter is he’s no longer an underdog. Purdy has serious expectations now in the NFL in the wake of this contract, as well as in fantasy at his current price tag ⬇️ 

That puts him amongst players like Breece Hall, TreVeyon Henderson, and Tee Higgins, and with a cost similar to C.J. Stroud, Bo Nix, and Kyler Murray. Well, the guy’s only 3 months older than Bo and had a better first full fantasy season than all of them. Fantasy football is all about being ahead of the curve, though. What has Purdy done for us lately.

🏈 The Player

Purdy’s QB14 finish on 18.6 PPG was respectable in his second season, especially in a down year for the usually mighty Niners offense. Last year said mighty offense was in much stronger form, and Purdy finished QB6 on 16 games, 18.4 PPG. Let’s see how he gets it done.

• Passing - Purdy’s biggest fall off from last year to this one was in the money categories. In two less games, he threw 20 TDs to last year’s 31, and 12 INTs to last year’s 11. By standard scoring metrics that’s 46 points left on the table.

• Rushing - While many QBs lose rushes with time, Purdy actually saw a 69% increase in rush attempts and 3 more rush TDs last year. Nice.

• Red Zone - Though the Purdy-era Niners rank towards the bottom of the league in pass attempts per game, including being dead last in 2023, they have been top 10 in consecutive seasons in red zone pass attempts. Shanahan trusts Purdy to let it fly.

This is the quarterback playstyle that every new era offensive mind grabs to run their offense, it’s nothing new. The pass attempts aren’t particularly high, the average depth of target usually isn’t off the charts, and the quarterback is staying in that pocket unless everything else breaks down. These guys score fantasy points on YAC and on touchdowns. These things are largely out of Purdy’s hands, so let’s look at the cast.

🏙️ The Situation

After this last year being a member of Kyle Shanahan’s offense lost some of its glamor, but will it come right back? Let’s look at what went wrong.

Injuries - Christian McCaffrey let many a fantasy manager down last year as he battled some wicked case of Achilles tendinitis that required a trip overseas for some experimental treatment, only playing 3.5 games. Top 2023 receiver Brandon Aiyuk tore his ACL in week seven, just as first round rookie Ricky Pearsall returned from gun shot wound related injuries. Hall of Fame left tackle Trent Williams missed a substantial stretch of time due to a recurrent ankle injury as well

Output - Quite possibly due to the injuries, the Niners did see some drop off in yards, though only to the tune of about 400 yards. The real difference came in the scoring, where they suffered a 102 loss from last year to this year. If we’re looking for where all Purdy’s touchdowns disappeared to, look no further.

This was a down year for the team, no doubt about it, but it does speak volumes that their year of injuries and discombobulation still resulted in well above average metrics in efficiency and output. Most team’s at the top of the table are firing on all cylinders, and the Niners were just running things the best that they could.

🛠️ Putting It All Together

So what does this mean for this year and beyond…

• Weapons: Talk about a tough read. CMC could return in full form, or this soft tissue aggravation could be a sign of his massive workload catching up to him in his twilight years. Not to mention Deebo’s departure, Jauan Jennings’ trade request, and Aiyuk’s return from major injury and rumors of his own all are making this new receiving core in the post QB contract world very interesting. I think the Niners without fail end up with two very capable receivers out there, and it may be a dip from peak Deebo and Aiyuk, but it’s all the offense needs to run.2

• Coaching: Talk about an easy read. Nothing has changed here and nothing ever will so long as Shanahan’s here. The philosophy is just the same, and though it obviously works better with better pieces, there will still be production no matter what.

The 49ers have some difficult situations to deal with now, dealing with a supposedly disgruntled Aiyuk, a receiver they probably can’t afford to pay in Jennings, and a first round talent they have yet to evaluate in Pearsall. That said I refuse to believe that whatever combination they march out there Week 1 won’t be able to do enough to keep this offense afloat. Purdy will get his.

📊 Outlook

Short term: Purdy will do what he has done the past few years again. He will stay decently healthy, give you 18 points per game, and do so in a very consistent way, which I think is a very undervalued aspect of fantasy football (I avoid players that are all boom or bust every week). He will finish around QB8-12.

Long term: The Niners did not shell out for Purdy just to enter a rebuild. They have let multiple big name free agents walk, especially on the defensive side, in the interest of letting this ship be one that does not live and die by the results of the next year or two, but that can continually retool. Purdy will have weapons at his disposal and an elite offensive coach calling the shots for the foreseeable future, and will consistently turn in high end QB2 to low end QB1 finishes.

Verdict: The QB13 price tag is a bit low for Purdy. We’ve seen what peak C.J. Stroud looks like, and it’s a lot like this. I project Bo Nix to be much in this range as well. I take Purdy by a hair over both of them because of the combination of a more consistent resume and higher demonstrated ceiling but still being close to them in age. Would I take him over Breece Hall, TreVeyon Henderson, etc? Not usually. I personally think it much easier to grab quarterbacks that will give you what Purdy gives you for 2-3 years at a time than running backs that will give you what those guys will. It’s all about context, though.

Purdy is my current QB11 and 47th overall player in SFTEP formats. He’s a stash if you’ve got him in any stage in team building, and a solid start up pick up. I’m even fine with a buy as a team near contention if he isn’t too expensive and options like Dak Prescott, Matt Stafford, and others aren’t expensive, as I expect him to be cheaper than Stroud, Nix, and the other in that area and has a higher floor and ceiling.

 — DynastyDetourRyan

Thanks for sticking with me. Stay tuned for another Preseason Pulse newsletter next Monday, and The Pit Stop next Thursday. Be sure to follow us @dynastydetour on Instagram and X/Twitter to get our reactions and opinions in between issues, as well as email us with any questions at [email protected]. See you out on the road 🚘️.