The NFL Draft is next week, which means it’s time to start finishing out our film breakdowns of the top guys at every position. Today’s installment: the rest of the quarterbacks, including the likely first guy off the board a week from today in Fernando Mendoza. Just how good is he, and how does the rest of the class stack up?
Fernando Mendoza - QB Indiana
It’s hard not to hold the probable first overall pick to a different standard, especially when his most recent film features showdowns on the biggest stage against college football’s best defenses. No prospect analysis would be complete, though, if it didn’t factor in these games which best simulate the Mendoza product with the most NFL-adjacent preparation, pressure, and opposition. He certainly showed up and did what his team needed all season long, but it was not without flaw. Let’s take a look:
The Great Stuff:
Great throw mechanics and perfect touch on passes that were almost always incredibly accurate
Able to make throws against different coverages and all over the field
Smart decision maker that mixed in calculated aggressive strikes
Some really incredible throws down the sideline
Flashes of good throws on the move and at different arm angles
Durability and willingness to get hit after the throw and on the run
The Good Stuff:
Employed scrambling and executed designed runs decently, though I don’t consider him a consistent threat on the ground worthy of game-planning against
Great composure in the pocket with a pretty consistent internal clock, though he did over or underreact with movement in the pocket at times
Can see and strike anywhere on the field, though offense was built mainly around first and second reads
Decent intuition on throwing balls away to avoid sacks
Age and experience
Concerns:
Blitzes sped him up in a way that seemed to take focus away from reading the field or force escapes from the pocket. He also had reps where the blitz would get home with almost no reaction from him.
Risky throws were occasionally poorly placed
Offense ran almost entirely out of the shotgun and was a bit more simple processing-wise than anything you’d see at the NFL level
You see the score. You might remember I was pretty geeked about Ty Simpson (score and breakdown here), but the fact is Mendoza should be the top quarterback in the class. He demonstrated really nice mechanics, no weaknesses against different coverages, and ability to make throws of different types anywhere on the field, and did so against better defenses and in bigger than the rest of the class. He isn’t the greatest QB1 in draft history by any means. I think he’d benefit greatly from a season of maturing his processing of more complicated and disguised defensive looks and get more comfortable against pressure, but there are few QBs that ever come in ready for those things. I wouldn’t be shocked at all should he prove to us early in his career that he can take that next step, nor that he can execute a more complicated passing attack than Indiana had him running. Fact is we can only evaluate what’s on the tape, and what’s on the tape is a really high floor quarterback product with potential to continue making big throws at the next level. My comp for Mendoza is Jared Goff. In an inventive scheme and talent-rich situation, like those Goff has favored from most of his career, Mendoza could absolutely pilot an offense to the sport’s biggest stages. From a fantasy perspective, he could totally follow a similar trajectory (2 top 12 finishes through his first 6 seasons, 4 top 10 finishes since, never in the top 5). Should he be less fortunate than Goff, I worry just how capable he is of elevating an offense in a less-than-perfect situation. Only time will tell.
Drew Allar - QB Penn State
Allar came into the 2025 season with a ton of hype, but a Week 6 ankle fracture ended his season and turned him into the class’ biggest what-if. After going through the tape, here’s what I think if:
The Great Stuff:
Great size lets him see the field and get out of some grabs by the pass rush
Demonstrated some nice touch and accuracy on throws 12-25 yards downfield, especially near the red zone
Age
Experience
The Good Stuff:
Progresses through his reads frequently, but can be a bit indecisive until his last one, when he can let it fly haphazardly
Uses, but is not addicted to his checkdowns. Can hold out the ball for a bit long as well, though.
Throw speed is serviceable but very few instances of truly driven balls or deep shots
Moves well in the pocket but struggles to consistently be accurate when he’s shifting around or needing to change arm angle
Okay accuracy
Smart scrambler but not an athletic ball carrier
Concerns:
Interceptions were almost always the result of not seeing the field well as opposed to taking gambles on throws
Time to throw certainly not towards the top of the class despite low deep shot rate
Lacking any real rushing upside
Allar’s frame and experience at a high level make him a favorite among many scouting this class to be a surprise riser in the draft, and if I needed to splice tape together to support that, I absolutely could. That said, there’s a reason I’m now coining him Drew “The Double Edged Sword” Allar. Can he be move through his progressions and be decisive and accurate? Yes. Does he generate stupid turnovers and sacks sizing up every receiver on the field and eventually firing at one who’s window is closed? Also yes. Can he be accurate at all three levels, versus different coverages, and on the move? Yes. Does he lack focus on some routine throws, causing sailed, low, and misplaced balls, and does this inaccuracy bleed into the more difficult throws? Also yes. Does he demonstrate the ability to shift his base, arm angles, and muscle arm-only strikes? Yes. Does he miss them frequently? Also yes. Basically, there is a ton of fundamental improvement that very well could happen at the next level, and with his other attributes and abilities come together to make a really strong quarterback, but these are not guaranteed. He’s a house with a crack in its foundation, but a pool out back. Serious work needs to be done the right way, and if it isn’t there’s no chance he gets the job done. If it can, though, we’re cooking with gas. His comp from me is Will Levis, who had his fair share of upside, but the fundamental cerebral and physical flaws in his game made him a project, and one that has yet to pay off.
Diego Pavia - QB Vanderbilt
Pavia’s family supposedly wanted to sue the Heisman committee for discrimination after they felt he was passed over for the award because he was Hispanic, so I would like to preface this review by saying I have no issue with his ethnicity and just don’t think he will be a good NFL football player, solely based on tape.
The Great Stuff:
Athletic ball carrier that can be elusive and physical in space
The Good Stuff:
Half decent ability to process and throw on the run, which he is on almost every dropback
Capable of some nicely placed and paced balls down the sideline
Concerns:
His size, how tall he is, and how far the top of his head is from the ground
Seriously though he is unable to stand in a pocket without 5+ yards between him and the offensive line in front of him and still see the field, resulting in most plays rolling one way or another
Can scan through progressions sometimes, but if he doesn’t like the first two looks he’s likely taking off running
Lacking in arm strength or talent to make the throws he’d need to
Mechanics are lacking, mainly because he’s rarely got his feet set
I think you get the point. He’s not an untalented guy but he’s a quintessential college quarterback. His size isn’t necessarily prohibitive in and of itself, but he definitely lacks the pocket presence and processing to be a pocket passer like those short kings that came before him. I also don’t think he’s an elite runner of the football enough to justify the gaping holes in his game as a passer. I don’t really have a comp for him, it’s just not going to work out. Character concerns also make it unlikely a team commits to him as a serious part of their locker room should they decide there was potential in developing him.
That all for the soon to be rookie signal callers! Next week is running back week. Keep an eye on your inboxes for Jeremiyah Love and the rest of the backs not yet broken down, and thanks for taking the Detour!
-- Dynasty Detour Ryan
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