Commanders Backfield Blueprint 🗺️

Welcome to The Pit Stop. I’m doin’ things a little different this week to take a look at the situation literally everyone is talking about: The Washington Commanders running back room

— Dynasty Detour Ryan

Under The Hood: The Commanders RBs

Ever since the news broke about Brian Robinson Jr. being shopped in trades, fantasy footballers everywhere have sounded like the start of a Bill Nye video (Bill! Bill! Bill! Bill!) Because of this, I thought it only right to figure out where the hype around Jacory Croskey-Merritt (aka Bill) came from and how real it is. Is it just the nickname? Do people just love rooting for a 7th rounder? Can we go back to talking about Kyle Pitts? Let’s take a look at the Washington backfield as a whole and determine if any of these guys are worth getting excited about before we get carried away.

🏈 The Players

Per the Commanders’ website, the team currently has two starting tight ends and no starting running back. Would love to see how that plays out for them. At RB2, and the top guy listed, is Austin Ekeler. Behind Ekeler we see Jeremy McNichols, Chris Rodriguez Jr., then the now famous Jacory “Bill” Croskey-Merritt. Let’s compare.

• 🧍‍♂️ Austin Ekeler: 30.3 years old , entering year 9 | 1 year, $5M left on contract

  12 games on WAS last year ➡️ 77 carries for 367 yards and 4 TDs (4.77 YPC) as well as 35 receptions for 366 yards and 0 TDs
  

• 🧍‍♂️ Jeremy McNichols: 29.7 years old , entering year 8 | 1 year, $1.2M left on contract

  17 games on WAS last year ➡️ 55 carries for 261 yards and 4 TDs (4.75 YPC) as well as 9 receptions for 27 yards and 0 TDs
  

• 🧍‍♂️ Chris Rodriguez Jr.: 24.9 years old , entering year 3 | 1 year, $1M left on contract

  9 games on WAS last year ➡️ 35 carries for 173 yards and 2 TDs (4.94 YPC) as well as 1 reception for 12 yards and 0 TDs

• 🧍‍♂️ Jacory Croskey-Merritt: 24.4 years old , entering year 1 | 4 years, $1M/year left on contract

  1 game at Univ. of Arizona last year ➡️ 13 carries for 106 yards and 1 TD (8.2 YPC) as well as 0 receptions
  

• 👻 Brian Robinson Jr.: 26.5 years old , entering year 4 | 1 year, $2M left on contract

  14 games on WAS last year ➡️ 187 carries for 799 yards and 8 TDs (4.27 YPC) as well as 20 receptions for 159 yards and 0 TDs

An investigation into whether or not Croskey-Merritt truly redshirted his freshman year cost him his last year at Arizona, but the year before at New Mexico he played 12 games, rushing 189 times for 1190 yards and 17 TDs and adding 7 receptions for 79 yards and 1 TD as well. Not bad, but his competition wasn’t good.

One thing is clear and it’s that Brian Robinson Jr. was the team’s best rusher last year, as well as the red zone guy. Why’d they let him walk? There’s speculation that it’s because the coaching staff loves Croskey-Merritt so much, and that speculation is why we have the frenzy we have now. Is it valid?

🏙️ The Situation

The Commanders rushed the ball more than all but three teams last year, but their lead rusher in Robinson Jr. only finished 26th in attempts leaguewide. Sure he missed three games, but the Commanders shared the work around even when he was healthy. Daniels had 148 attempts of his own, and the rest of the distribution you can see above.

Robinson finished the year with 8 TDs, which is decently high given this offense’s proclivity for throwing the rock in the red zone. Jayden Daniels threw the ball the 13th most of any quarterback inside the 20 yard line last year, and the 9th most inside the 10. Sure, the team ran 16 more red zone plays on the year than the average team, but clearly Kingsbury and company like going to the air when it matters. With the way it worked for them last year, I don’t see much changing.

So why the change at lead back? Camp buzz would tell you Croskey-Merritt’s made a good impression, and the fact is that he and Ekeler were the two that got to rest in the pre-season finale versus Baltimore while Rodriguez Jr. and McNichols were trotted out. I gotta say, I believe it. This is not to say that I think Croskey-Merritt has walked in and flat out beat Robinson in camp, but I think the team may genuinely think the remaining pieces can collectively add up to what Robinson gave them. I think this clueless front office saw an opportunity to squeeze one last drop of value out of Robinson in a contract year and think they’re smart for doing so. Maybe my Sixers-fan assessment of Josh Harris’ management is tinged negative, but that is probably how it went down.

All that’s great, but what does it mean for the guys? Personnel-wise, we’re looking at a straight swap of Robinson for Croskey-Merritt. If that were the case, and if he is just as good as Robinson, he’s looking at 11.4 points per game. I think this is the absolute ceiling for this year. I hate to be the one that ruins this thing, and I still recognize that that would be awesome for a rookie that went untouched in most rookie drafts before two weeks ago, but the fever has officially run too high.

Why I don’t believe is simple, and I’ll break it down:

• Croskey-Merritt runs with a fire, and that’s really fun and he did it with some success, but the fact of the matter is his best years of college were in the Mountain-West conference, and his statement game of the pre-season was against the mostly 2nd team Bengals defense. I don’t think his run style is efficient, and I don’t think he as a prospect shows anything to get overly excited about.

• He’s not the best receiving back in the backfield, and may not even be top two. We’ve never seen him do much of it, and what I have seen, I’m not particularly convinced receiving’s a strong suit. His hands aren’t all that natural, he takes some time getting to speed even in the open field, and he’s not really elusive at all.

• He may see B-Rob’s workload, but he’s not going to squeeze much more out of it. Nor are the Commanders going to have a sizable uptick in rush attempts. There’s really no room for growth from where Robinson Jr. ended up last year.

Normally I’m fine letting the community wind itself up, but the trades people are making and the conversations people are putting this guy in as of late have been nuts. It’s gone too far.

📊 Outlook

🔜 Short term:

Croskey-Merritt is going to be exciting to watch at times, and may have his big weeks, just like Robinson did. Also just like Robinson, he is going to find himself in a busy backfield already playing second fiddle to the Jayden Daniels show. Assuming he has and holds the early down work, Croskey-Merritt will still be touchdown dependent, and that’s something we saw Robinson only see eight times, only two TDs occurring after his Week 11 return from injury. Was he banged up? Possibly, but much more to blame is the fact that Daniels threw for 30+ passes in all of those games, something he only did three times in the first half of the season. That late season offense is what we’re getting for all of this season, and Croskey-Merritt is going to perpetually exist below ten points in games he doesn’t score.

I predict he falls somewhere in the RB30-36 range, and the rest of the backfield behind him.

🔮 Long term:

 
Not sure if you took notice, but he is the only name listed above that has a deal with the team beyond this year. In some cases, I’d be all over this as an easy window to buy someone with a great opportunity upcoming. Ask yourself, though, how often these day 3 picks and undrafted RBs flash and the team moves off them like nothing. The Philip Lindsays, James Robinsons, Michael Carters, etc. The team will need to flesh out the backfield somehow, and the odds of them handing an even bigger workload to Croskey-Merritt, if he even were to flash, isn’t great. Will this likely be the best situation of his career? Everything would say so. That doesn’t mean it will get better with time. In fact, I’ll bet it won’t. I bet in three years’ time he’s a cut candidate through camp and struggles to make the roster if he does at all. More talented guys have came and went.

🧑‍⚖️ Verdict:

 
I’m sorry if this has ended up being a little harsh, but I would just hate to see our readers burned by this trap. I have no issue if you want to stash shares of your favorite flier RBs in hopes they fall into an opportunity (#LeQuintAllenHive) but Croskey-Merritt is officially too expensive to buy if you don’t fully believe he will be an RB2 or better this year and for the next few as well.

The various ranking and trade calculator platforms haven’t adjusted to his current value fast enough, but he is currently costing people a 2nd rounder + a 3rd or a decent young project player. Do not buy.

Dynasty Trade Strategy:

• If you’re rebuilding: you can stash him when the price goes down after the first few weeks if you believe in the long term, but I wouldn’t. Sell him now if you’ve got him.

  If you’re contending: Unless you’re an RB2 hopeful away from taking it all, sell him now if you’ve got him. His price is literally equal to someone like Courtland Sutton. That’s an easy swap.  

 — Dynasty Detour Ryan

The Bill parade ends here, I’m sorry. Stay tuned for another Preseason Pulse newsletter next Monday, and The Pit Stop next Thursday. Be sure to follow us @dynastydetour on Instagram and X/Twitter to get our reactions and opinions in between issues, as well as email us with any questions at [email protected]. See you out on the road 🚘️.