It’s time to look at the moves we just couldn’t get to in our first Free Agency newsletter last Thursday and address the moves since. With new starting QBs, WR1s, and new-look running back rooms across the league, you’re going to want to get a read on the new look NFL for 2026 and start scoping out the risers and fallers before your league gets rolling again, so...
Kyler Murray to Minnesota - 1 yr / $1.3M
Arizona has decided it is time for a new face of the franchise, parting with formal number one overall pick Kyler Murray. Murray’s last contract guaranteeing he makes exactly $36M this year no matter what the size of his new contract made him an incredibly attractive add for any team around the league, and with his pick of team he clearly thought the best place to get back on track was Minnesota. QB whisperer Kevin O’Connell seems to have met his match with J.J. McCarthy and wants to move on, meaning Kyler is very likely to be the Week 1 starter in September. With four career top 10 fantasy finishes (most recently in 2024) and still only 29 years old this season, I think there is absolutely potential for Murray to become a QB1 yet again. In fact, his rushing production and the caliber of players on this offense make me all but certain he will be, so long as he can avoid injury problems that have plagued him a bit in recent seasons.
Better Roads Ahead:
Justin Jefferson - For the first time in his career, Jefferson played over 10 games and did not finish as a top 5 fantasy wide receiver on the year. I think Murray provides enough of a floor to at least make him a WR1 again, but probably not enough to deliver a top 3 or maybe even top 5 finish. Not only will this return Jefferson to a premiere asset again, but probably work well enough that we finally get some stability at QB for the Vikings and keep Jefferson happy enough that he doesn’t start demanding out of Minnesota.
Could Be Hitting a Bit of Traffic:
J.J. McCarthy - Between serious durability concerns and somewhat shaky QB play, McCarthy evidently did not seem to be the answer for Minnesota long-term. I personally thought that there was potential there, and though one of the best QB developers in the sport giving up on the project is a terrible sign, I’m not totally out on adding McCarthy for cheap if he gets to a new opportunity soon. That said, the Vikes don’t appear to be rushing any trade, which means the tenth overall pick in 2024 could very well be seeing back-up duties for this year, if not after. Not ideal.
Travis Etienne to New Orleans - 4 yrs / $52M
With very limited cap space and two running backs drafted just last year, it’s not surprising that the Jaguars did not meet the price tag on bringing Etienne back, though reports also said Etienne wanted to be near family around New Orleans as well. Now this Saints rushing attack last year was pretty weak, but in his 6 years as an offensive coordinator before last year’s promotion, Kellen Moore has run the ball above league average in 5 of them. With Kamara likely to still get a good slice of the action if he remains on the team, which is quite possible, Etienne might be seeing a bit of a dip in production this year. After that, potentially in an offense on the rise and a backfield to himself, things could get really nice.
Better Roads Ahead:
Bhayshul Tuten & LeQuint Allen - Tuten looked electric in spurts last year, but I do wonder about how likely it is that we see him shoulder a bell-cow workload in the wake of Etienne’s departure. I think cap difficulties and a few huge free agent losses mean this backfield goes largely untouched through the rest of this offseason, meaning either 2025 7th rounder LeQuint Allen or new addition Chris Rodriguez should be in line for a sizable workload too. I’ve been a huge fan of Allen’s since before last year’s draft, and would not be surprised at all if Tuten finishes around RB15 next year, with Allen behind him around RB25.
Could Be Hitting a Bit of Traffic:
Alvin Kamara - On the last year of a pretty sizeable contract, Kamara presents as a pretty tough asset for New Orleans to get off the books. I think it’s quite possible he finishes out his deal with the team, likely ceding most of the rushing work to the younger, more traditional rusher in Etienne. I also think Etienne infringes on Kamara’s receiving work as well. Not ideal for the Saints legend.
Malik Willis to Miami - 3 yrs / $67.5M
The Dolphins were without a clear QB1 for only a few hours as the news of their split with Tua was followed pretty quickly by the news that they were bringing in Willis, who had a few really impressive starts in Green Bay with new Miami head coach Jeff Haffley on the coaching staff. Haffley clearly liked what he saw enough to stake his first year in charge on Willis moving the ball. There’s no doubt that Willis definitely learned a thing or two from Matt LaFleur, but just how far he’s come since a pretty disastrous first stint as a starter on the Tennessee Titans remains to be seen. With Tyreek Hill cut, it will be interesting to see what form this supporting cast takes for what is likely a bridge year for the Fins. Either way, a starting QB with rushing upside is an asset worth looking into, especially when you note that Willis was above 25 fantasy points in 2 of the 3 games he played over 80% of snaps in as a Packer.
Better Roads Ahead:
Jaylen Waddle - Willis is far from a confirmed quality starter at the NFL level, but it was feeling safe to assume Quinn Ewers was not going to give this offense a whole lot to work with. The Willis addition should add something of a floor to Miami’s ability to move the ball, and it being a multi-year deal gives some kind of stability to the system as well.
Could Be Hitting a Bit of Traffic:
Quinn Ewers - Like I said, I don’t think anyone thought Ewers was shaping up to be a long-term starting QB, but the likelihood of him getting a chance to prove that wrong just went way down with this move. Not great.
Romeo Doubs to New England - 4 yr / $68M
Coming off a Super Bowl berth and the opening of a new contending window in New England, the Patriots saw fit to let last year’s WR1 in Stefon Diggs walk and start building a more long-term core around Maye. I wouldn’t be surprised if a notable wide receiver is added through the draft, but there certainly is a world where this wide receiver room is currently in it’s final form. Is Doubs all that much better than Kayshon Boutte and Pop Douglas? I wouldn’t say so, but the fact is that without a sizable addition, he figures to be the best option for the Patriots in an offense on the rise. If he is the WR1 come Week 1, he figures to be a mid WR2 in scoring on the year, with a half decent floor and decent ceiling week to week.
Better Roads Ahead:
Drake Maye - Though I’m not sure swapping Diggs for Doubs is going to mean any kind of jump in production for Maye, I don’t think it will result in a decline either. The long term stability is certainly nice for a young quarterback, and Doubs certainly provides enough as a weapon that Maye has opportunities to move the ball through the air and hit some big plays for the foreseeable future.
Could Be Hitting a Bit of Traffic:
Kayshon Boutte - 2025 was a year of improvement for Boutte that certainly had some of us thinking we could be starting to see a solid fantasy asset in the making. His second year jump coupled with the potential for him to be in line for more touches in the wake of Diggs leaving could’ve meant that he could’ve really balled out. Clearly, New England didn’t believe he was able to shoulder that much of a load, and though he still could see more opportunities this year, being the Patriots WR1 doesn’t seem to be in the cards anymore.
Isaiah Likely to New York Giants - 3 yrs / $40M
Though many thought Likely had flashed enough during his Ravens tenure to be the heir apparent to an aging Mark Andrews, Andrews held on just long enough that Baltimore didn’t feel the need to pass the torch quite yet. Likely finds himself now in an offense on the rise and reunited with his only NFL head coach in John Harbaugh, who clearly thought it important to go grab him despite having Theo Johnson showing us some stuff down the stretch last year. I think the Giants imagine a one-two punch incorporating both of them, as both Harbaugh and Giants OC Greg Roman ran in 2022 after drafting Likely. Likely saw more targets that year than any year since, and the coaching staff clearly want him to be a huge part of their offense, now as the probable TE1. Mark Andrews was TE4 in that 2022 season, and if Likely is able to finally fill those shoes, he could have a similar finish in the years ahead.
Better Roads Ahead:
Mark Andrews - We’re in the twilight years of Andrews’ career, and Father Time could come for him at any moment, but Baltimore clearly thought he has enough time left to extend him for this year, with an option to move on next year or pay him almost $15M in 2027. He’ll definitely have to earn that tag in the eyes of a new coaching staff that didn’t give him that contract in the first place, but if new OC Declan Doyle has as big a role for Andrews as Ben Johnson has had for tight ends in his schemes, it could totally happen. Andrews is also now in a much less crowded room after both Likely and Charlie Kolar moved on in free agency. We could be looking at a big year.
Could Be Hitting a Bit of Traffic:
Theo Johnson - Like I said, Harbaugh and Roman getting their guy in Likely is 1) probably more an indication of how much they love Likely than not believing in Johnson, and 2) does not mean Theo Johnson will not be seeing action too. There’s an obvious ceiling involved if Likely is handling TE1 duties, though, that probably puts all the hype Johnson had coming off of last season on ice.
David Montgomery to Houston - 2 yr / $16.5M after trade
The post-Ben Johnson’s dip in Detroit hit no one harder than Montgomery as the Lions offense as a whole spent less time on the field and scored almost 5 less points per game (83 less on the season). Montgomery’s yards per carry actually went up from the year before, making me hopeful that the 28 year old still has plenty in the tank. A price tag like this makes me think that Houston intends to run the majority of their ground game through him, and as someone that was always lower on Woody Marks than consensus and thinks Montgomery has a lot to offer, I expect it. The concerns about Houston’s offensive line continue to be warranted, but they will likely continue to address them via the draft. Joe Mixon basically posted over 18 FPPG in 2024 if you factor out a Week 18 game where he barely played, and I totally see a world where Monty can get in that realm, though I think Marks impedes his touches enough that that’s just about the ceiling of what he’d put out.
Better Roads Ahead:
No One - I think the Lions bringing in Isiah Pacheco means that Gibbs’ touches may increase a bit, but really will remain just about the same. Potentially a better ground game will create better offense for Houston, but I’m not overly confident in a big fantasy jump from any given player.
Could Be Hitting a Bit of Traffic:
Woody Marks - Marks did alright as he was handed the reins more and more as the year progressed, but clearly the Texans don’t view him as a long term number one rushing option. He’ll still get receiving work and some carries here and there, but I think the Marks agenda should be seriously cooled down after this.
Joe Mixon - Last year’s injury casted enough worry on Mixon’s outlook, but I think this move officially ended his fantasy career for me. Even if he did find a half-decent opportunity elsewhere, it looks like health is very much a worry.
And that’ll do us for now on free agency analytics! Tune in later this week for a return to film breakdowns with Makai Lemon, Malachi Fields, Omar Cooper Jr., and Skyler Bell. It was a pleasure as always.
-- Dynasty Detour Ryan
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