Dynasty Detour 🚧

Hold on to your tushes. The Brotherly Shove lives, James Cook’s red zone role might have been a mirage, and we’ve got @dynastydetourjesse trying to sell us on a… Colt??? We’ve got sneaky buys, risky holds, and one very loud Jerry Jeudy take — let’s hit the Detour

 -- @dynastydetourtom

Traffic Report 📝

The soaring Eagles keep their ground game intact

The Tush Push Survives — again. The Packers' proposal to ban the Tush Push failed by a vote of 22–10 — the exact same score as their 2024 playoff loss to the Eagles.

• Fantasy Implications - The “Brotherly Shove” isn’t going anywhere, meaning big-bodied, mobile quarterbacks retain a goal line cheat code.

• More teams will try and copy it, with varying success. Hurts and Allen remain the gold standard.

📈 Winners

Jalen Hurts

• Led the league with 11 rushing TDs from the 1-yard line in 2024.

• Subtracting those TDs, he drops from QB5 to QB13 in PPG last year.

• With the Tush Push seemingly locked in, Hurts remains a rock solid dynasty QB4.

Josh Allen

• Scored 6 of 12 rush TDs on push-style plays.

• Subtracting those TDs, he drops from QB2 and QB6 in PPG last year.

• Not as reliant as Hurts, but helps him remain certain QB1 in dynasty.

📉 Losers

Saquon Barkley

• Could’ve improved numbers coming off historic RB1 season — still has safe floor, high ceiling.

• Still a buy for contenders given offense and workload, does cap TD output.

James Cook

• Exploded for 16 TDs after just four rushing TDs in first two seasons. Feels like an outlier that could’ve been stymied by added goal-line work.

• With regression likely and long term outlook cloudy — Cook is a firm sell for non-contenders, and a risky hold for contenders

 -- @dynastydetourtom

Fueling the Rebuild ⛽

Dynasty diamonds in the rough that turbocharge your turnaround

Josh Downs is a player you want need to build around. Okay… I get that he finished PPR WR 35 in 2024, but hear me out… he missed three games, and had some terrible QB play. It cannot get much worse than having 2024 Anthony Richardson under center, and with Daniel Jones entering the fray, I expect a healthy QB competition. 

Say what you want about Jones, but let’s not forget he contributed to giving fellow slot receiver Wan’Dale Robinson 140 (!!) targets in ‘24. Sure, it’s a different scheme… but let’s entertain this fun hypothetical: If Downs had Robinson’s 93 catches, he reaches 1,000+ yards, based off of Downs’ respectable 11.2 Yards Per Reception in 2024. 

Yes, the Colts added Tyler Warren, and the quarterback situation might still be unsettled early, but Downs remains the favorite to lead this receiver room. He’s a high-floor option with legit upside—especially in PPR. And more importantly, he’s cheap. KeepTradeCut currently values him around a 2026 early 2nd in Superflex leagues. That’s a SCREAMING buy for a 23-year-old technician with a locked-in role and rising tide at QB, regardless of Jones or Richardson. 

Downs has ALL the right parts (ayo) to fuel your rebuild—and he’s ready to floor it in 2025.

 -- @dynastydetourjesse

Scouting Stoplight 🚦

Reading signals and shifting gears

🔴 Zay Flowers

It’s been two nearly identical seasons for Flowers his first two years as a pro (206 and 209 points, good for WR31 and WR25 finishes) but his price point is currently WR20-24 across most platforms. This may not seem particularly far off, but I’m of the opinion we’re seeing Flowers at his ceiling.

• Nothing about his game is particularly special, nor is there reason to expect a leap in production. He is replaceable.

• Flowers operates in a low volume passing offense with little to no possibility for an increase in volume, especially with the addition of DeAndre Hopkins.

• Flowers has exclusively played with MVP level QB play from Lamar Jackson. Jackson may continue at this clip, but simply cannot play better than he has been. It is only equivalent or down from here.

• Derrick Henry and Rashod Bateman received extensions this offseason. With the Ravens frequently up against the cap ceiling, a pricey fifth year option is currently not justified by his production when that time comes in two years.

While Flowers could turn in two more seasons of mid-WR2 output, the large possibility that the end of his time with the Ravens is on the horizon and the low possibility of finding a better or even equivalent opportunity for his second contract offset any positives being baked into his value because of his age. Flowers is certainly not a buy for me right now, and, depending on your current team construction, a sell candidate.

🟡 Chuba Hubbard

Hubbard made the most of his first real lead back opportunity last year, finishing RB14 on the season and netting a lengthy extension in Carolina. While he returns to a similar opportunity this year, I have some concerns.

• Hubbard’s breakout occurring this deep into his time in the league would suggest that he is not likely to turn in similar performances consistently for the duration of his career. He would have to be an anomaly to become a perennial top-15 RB after 3 years of being quite outside that mark.

• The Panthers have spent considerable draft capital on the running back position the last two drafts. He should be top dog, but they clearly don’t envision him being a complete bellcow for the rest of his contract.

• Hubbard’s production became less consistent and less prolific down the stretch (i.e. when the Panthers started winning games). With investments in the passing offense this offseason, I expect this to continue.

This is not to say Hubbard is a bad asset. Running back is a position where you can only really expect 2-3 years of output in the vast majority of cases. That said, the year over year improvement we’ve seen from Hubbard stops now, and there should be little to no optimism towards him cracking the top 10 when assessing his value, especially on the heels of this new influx of running back talent via the rookie class.

🟢 Trevor Lawrence

After finishing QB26 in points per game (15.2) in 2024, declining in that regard for the second straight season (17.4 in 2022, 16.4 in 2023), Lawrence may not be the sexiest buy on the market, but that’s where the largest gains stand to be made.

• Lawrence was the QB8 in the one year things have gone right in Jacksonville since he arrived. He has been and can be a QB1.

• Liam Coen was hired as the team’s new head coach this offseason. He comes in having resurrected other former first overall QB Baker Mayfield’s career, helping him turn in the only two QB1 seasons he’s had and making him an MVP candidate.

• The team sold out to get Travis Hunter with the second pick this year. Hunter obviously contributes to more than just the offense, but his arrival means Lawrence will now have two ELITE receiving threats that will be a nightmare for defenses to plan for.

• The Jags added two receiving capable running backs on top of Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby. Coen’s two running backs last year, Bucky Irving and Rachaad White, were both top 9 receiving backs on the year. Jacksonville’s RB stable will be turning in free points for Lawrence.

Fear with Lawrence’s recent struggles have his value the lowest it has ever been, but this year he will remind everyone why he was the most highly touted QB prospect in a decade coming out of high school. Buy in while you can.

 -- @dynastydetourryan

A Look Under The Hood 🚘

A detailed diagnostic of one of 2024’s most exhilarating assets: Cleveland’s Jerry Jeudy

Some people lie awake at night thinking about their job, their love life, perhaps various other sources of stress. I ponder what the hell to make of 2025 Jerry Jeudy, and his long term outlook as well. Judging Jeudy (not sorry at all) off his 2024 finish of PPR WR12 makes things look quite enticing, but the real story is told by the distinct chapters of his season — each with a different cast of characters. Three different quarterbacks, the departure of Amari Cooper, the rise and loss of Cedric Tillman, and David Njoku popping in and out as he pleased made Jeudy’s role quite difficult to read and project, but certain trends are obvious.

With Watson + Cooper and Tillman: 6.3 tgts per game , 8.8 ppg (6 games)

With Winston + Tillman, no Cooper: 9.0 tgts per game , 17.0 ppg (4 games)

With Winston, no Cooper or Tillman: 11.0 tgts per game , 23.2 ppg (3 games)

With DTR and no Cooper or Tillman : 8 tgts per game , 12.9 ppg (3 games)

Now clearly Jeudy wasn’t exactly excelling with his handsiest teammate under center, but unless you want to make the case that Dorian Thompson-Robinson is a head and shoulders better QB than Deshaun Watson, Cooper’s presence seemed to be Jeudy’s biggest kryptonite. Without Cooper’s 53 targets from just the first six games, and with Elijah Moore now headed to Buffalo, the Browns vacate a league leading 235 targets. It might seem like the stage is set for a repeat performance, but I’m still pumping the brakes on my expectations. This was just Jeudy’s second season ever with a top-47 finish at the position (WR22 in 2022). I get the situations haven’t been elite for him, but trusting a guy that took four and a half seasons to start showing flashes of elite production to consistently play at that level is a little insane. Cleveland led the league in pass attempts last year, and Jeudy’s clear peak came during the seven weeks he spent getting thrown the ball by the most gun-slinging quarterback of this generation, half of which were without Tillman, who commanded a 30% target share once Cooper departed. Free agent acquisition Diontae Johnson struggled to find footing with a number of franchises last year, but could easily revert to some version of the target vacuum he once was as well.

This is before even mentioning the Browns also went out and spent the 36th overall pick on Quinshon Judkins, a 4th round pick on another big name running back in Dylan Sampson, and re-signed Jerome Ford, all while letting WR2 Elijah Moore leave in free agency rather than cough up $2.5 million dollars. Head coach Kevin Stefanski fired one-and-done pass-spamming OC Ken Dorsey, a maneuver I suspect signals a return to the old ways. In Stefanski’s first three seasons in charge, he never entered the top 20 in pass attempts. News flash: the Browns are about to pound the rock.

Enough with the words, let’s talk numbers. Jeudy will see targets this year, and plenty of them, but they will not be the explosive opportunities he saw at this season’s peak. The usage gives him a floor, so long as he can stay healthy, but ultimately he will land in the WR20-36 range in 2025. In the long term, the only way I see the Browns not adding a more traditional WR1 is if Tillman takes a massive leap, which would eat into Jeudy anyway, and Jeudy’s contract could be done after the 2026 season as is. This Browns team is nowhere near its final form, and I find it hard to believe a then pushing-30 Jeudy would be the clear cut alpha when this thing eventually comes together. Expecting him to stumble into a top notch opportunity, which to this point has been 100% necessary to see elite production, is quite the pipe dream as well.

 -- @dynastydetourryan