Dynasty Detour 🚧

Welcome to The Pit Stop. From now on, Monday’s Preseason Pulse will be reserved for reactions to news and shorter segments to get your week started with some good intel. Every Thursday, we get the meat and potatoes: a full-length write up on one or two guys that really gets into the nitty gritty. This week… De’Von Achane.

-- @dynastydetourryan

🌴 Under The Hood: De’Von Achane

An analysis of one of the most coveted running backs in fantasy football… but is he worth the price?

I haven’t seen a single fact mentioned more across fantasy football discourse of all formats this offseason than “De’Von Achane averages 22.5 points per game when Tua is healthy”. It’s certainly a big number, and it’s at the center of a community-wide attitude that is buying the crap out of Achane. Should you pay up? Should you cash out?

Rankings like those? In the words of Chief Keef, that’s that shit I don’t like. This isn’t to say I don’t think Achane is a fine player coming off a great year with a few potentially ahead of him, it’s just why I roll my eyes every time someone on social media says he could be the RB1 this year.

🏈 The Player

Achane’s RB5 season last year marked his first RB1 finish of his young career, though he was RB5 in PPG the year before. The potential is established. Achane can and has been elite. Let’s take a look at how:

• Receiving work - Achane led running backs in receiving yards (592) and touchdowns (6) last year, his 173.2 fantasy points on receiving work alone accounting for almost 58% of his fantasy output.

• Outside runs - Achane and the Dolphins run the ball between the tackles less frequently than any team in the NFL (12% of plays, picking up 8% of their yardage).

Achane saw 6.6 receptions per game with Tua on the field, and only 2.3 without. This is a big reason why he, more than any other running back, feels his quarterback’s absence so much (and Tua is not the quarterback you want to be reliant on). If you’re going to spend the kind of resources Achane’s commanding these days you must also take a look at his health. His injuries have been plentier than you might remember.

• 2023 - Carted off in the preseason with a shoulder injury and returned Week 2. Went on to play four games before an MCL sprain sidelined him another five weeks. He then returned Week 11 for two plays before reaggravating the knee, missing the rest of that game and the next one. He played the final six games of the season.

• 2024 - A healthier year, though he played through a high ankle sprain suffered in Week 1 until a concussion in Week 5 knocked him out of that contest. He returned after the Week 6 bye and finished the season.

Achane’s smaller frame not only lends him to the niche workload described above, but also puts him at a higher risk for injury. Defenders at this level of the sport come with some punishing size, something that Achane hasn’t been immune to. I get there are guys with far more troubling injury histories, but this isn’t nothing either.

🐬 The Situation

Situation is everything in fantasy football, especially to player of Achane’s very specific set of skills. Obviously Tua’s decreasingly mobile play style is a positive contributor to Achane’s reception totals, but there are many facets of his situation that culminated in his explosion last year.

• Mike McDaniel: Kyle Shanahan and his disciples, McDaniel included, are known for the pre-snap motion and speed across the board, allowing them to change direction and attack from anywhere. McDaniel has certainly adopted this, but on steroids. Achane is a weapon specified to a scheme like this and McDaniel uses him as such.

• Tua Tagovailoa: Tua contributes greatly to Achane’s receiving workload, due not only to the fact that he looks to dump the ball off rather than scramble whenever possible, but also that the Dolphins use screens as an extension of the run game. The Dolphins also simply gain more yards and score more points with Tua out there.

• The RB Room: The Dolphins have said they are going to make a concerted effort to run the ball more effectively, particularly between the tackles. 2nd round rookie Jaylen Wright failed to find much footing in his last year. The team also signed Alexander Mattison and drafted Ollie Gordon in the sixth round. Achane already only had 45% of the team’s carries last year, and it looks ready to fall.

• The Protection: The Dolphins added through free agency and the draft to their well below average unit just to have Terron Armstead, their best guy up front, announce his retirement. With three new faces along the front, one of them a definite downgrade, things will look different, it is just a matter of how.

A situation I don’t think anyone is discussing enough is the Dolphins’ situation as a whole. They’ve flashed, but they’re 2-16 in their last 18 games against teams .500 or better. Reports have surfaced that McDaniel has little control over the locker room, and McDaniel himself has been fielding questions about his own job security. A disappointing year this year could end his tenure in Miami, and with it, Achane’s time in the system that suits him best.

🛠️ Putting It All Together

There is a lot I’m not particularly excited about, roll the list:

• Achane: If the Dolphins were to try and increase their run game between the tackles, Achane will likely lose some of his screen opportunities, as well as lose field time to one of his stronger counterparts.

• Durability: While he has avoided major injury, I worry about his durability in any given season. Owners and buyers are staking their belief in an uptick in touches, but I have serious doubts that this is something he could even shoulder over a season.

• Quarterback: Tua is a time bomb at this point. Any serious injury, especially a concussion, could genuinely mark the end of his career. At the very least another injury means another season with a hindered offense. The Dolphins can get out from Tua’s massive contract early after the 2026 season, and unless they see a serious uptick in this team’s ability to compete, I find it hard to believe they’d attempt a rebuild around a $60M/year quarterback.

• Coaching: McDaniel may well hold onto his job, but it certainly is a question mark. McDaniel’s scheme has yet to be really replicated elsewhere, and the odds of Achane being this integral to an offense anywhere else or with another coach are slim to none.

There are certainly reasons to be excited about Achane as well, it’s not like everyone across fantasy football is completely grasping at straws.

• Has been top 6 at the running back position in points per game both years of his professional career.

• He’s young, unbelievably explosive, evasive, and a natural at catching the football. A healthy Tua, Tyreek, etc. and a half decent performance from this O-Line and he’ll probably be in the top 10 again.

• Jonnu Smith played a huge role in this team’s red zone planning last year, and given the lack of size in the receiver room, I have to imagine Achane would be in line for a bump in his absence as they try to score in other ways.

The fact of the matter is all of that hinges on a lot of luck, and even if everything does go right, Achane’s inability to be used as the primary guy on downhill runs and goal line work mean he really can’t go any higher than he has.

📊 Outlook

Short term: Achane could be in for another good year, just definitely not better than last year. His value has never been higher, but if you’re a contender without much depth in the running back room, I have no issue with you holding on. Regardless of what the team looks like around him, he will turn in a handful of 25+ point games, it’s just the floor you have to worry about.

Long term: There is so much uncertainty around the Dolphins players and coaches’ tenure with the team. . You will never see Achane better than he was this year. He could replicate this year a few more times if everything goes perfectly, but who knows. The Dolphins seem headed towards a rebuild right around the time Achane would be due for a new contract. Re-signing a running back with durability concerns during a rebuild sounds like a really unlikely move, especially if McDaniel is gone. As for the landing spots where he would see anywhere near the workload he is now… well there’s not many.

Verdict: If I have him on anything but a win-now roster, I’m selling. I’m definitely not buying at the peak, and in a start-up I’m staying away. Achane slots in around my dynasty RB8, and it wouldn’t surprise me if he’s lower this time next year.

 -- @dynastydetourryan

Miami! How the fuck we feelin’, baby? Sorry to rain on your parade, just gotta call it how I see it. Stay tuned for another Preseason Pulse newsletter next Monday, and The Pit Stop next Thursday. Be sure to follow us @dynastydetour on Instagram and X/Twitter to get our reactions and opinions in between issues, as well as email us with any questions at [email protected]. See you out on the road 🚘️.