Dynasty Detour 🚧

Strap in. Tyler Warren just hijacked the TE1 debate, Colston Loveland truthers are clawing back, and the dynasty streets are divided. It’s a newsletter with takes, tape, and tight end chaos — let’s hit the Detour.

-- @dynastydetourtom

📝 Traffic Report

The Tight End Market just got a shakeup… hold on to your steering wheels!

Jonnu Smith is a Steeler— I repeat—Jonnu Smith IS A STEELER. No you are not living in Arther Smith’s “Happy Place” (h/t Happy Gilmore), this is REAL LIFE. Sure, trade smoke around Jonnu to Pittsburgh has been encircling the NFL world for at least a couple of months, but I’m a little surprised it actually happened.

Dyansty Quick Take: I think this move hurts Jonnu for a couple reasons…

• Freiermuth is still solid…both will likely cannibalize each other’s targets— even if the two share the field in 12 personnel sets. Jonnu was 4th in TE targets and tied for 2nd in receiving TDs last season— that WILL NOT repeat. For context, Freiermuth was 14th in targets and tied for 4th in receiving TDs. I do not care that the steelers now have a geriatric Aaron Rodgers.

• Arthur Smith’s offense is a downgrade. The Steelers offense last year ranked 29th in pass attempts. Jonnu’s former team? 8th in pass attempts. Certainly not a bigger pie.

The market is already downgrading Jonnu’s dynasty value—in this case, I agree with consensus.

Darren Waller (the rapper) is BACK in the NFL, traded from the Giants to un-retire and play for the Dolphins.

Dynasty Quick Take: Honestly— I kinda like it.

• I’ll admit it…his last season (2023) wasn’t pretty after another injury derailed a somewhat promising start. In fact, Waller hasn’t played a full season since 2020, when finished TE2. That’s the unfortunate story for Waller, and at 32, I would not bet on him playing the whole season. He’ll likely just be a weekly streaming play depending on his health status.

• That said, Jonnu Smith leaves an important hole in the Dolphins offense. It’s possible their other talented pass catchers, Tyreek, Waddle, Achane, and dare I say Malik Washington (add him if he’s available) could fill the Jonnu void. But something tells me Waller has gas left in the tank that the ‘Fins plan to utilize. If 33/34 year old Zach Ertz was able to finish as a top 8 TE last season in Half-PPR, I think the more talented Waller could do it.

There’s some upside here for TE needy teams. I’m taking a shot that his game will be much better than his music.

-- @dynastydetourjesse

🚦 Scouting Stoplight

Reading signals and shifting gears - here are 3 players we’re going to give the green, yellow, and red light to for dynasty fantasy football…

🔴 Xavier Worthy, WR KC, Age 22

Worthy’s rookie season had ups and downs, most notably with an incredible Super Bowl garbage time stat line, but there’s a reason we’re looking to sell heading into next season:

• Worthy grabbed 59 balls for 638 yards and 6 TDs as a rookie - a disappointing statline after Rashee Rice went down

• From Week 11 on, Worthy had 9+ points in every game - leading to some great momentum heading into the offseason

• This receiving room is crowded & talented, with Rashee Rice, Travis Kelce, Hollywood Brown, & fourth round pick Jalen Royals — there’s not a lot of football to go around

• Being attached to Mahomes is certainly a pro, but this hasn’t been the high volume offense we’ve expected the past two seasons

With the alpha Rice returning, we are selling the Super Bowl hype on Worthy. Look to package him in a deal for AJ Brown, Tet McMillan, or re-roll and move him for a future first. There might not be faster cars on the road than Worthy, but there’s certainly better ones.

 🟡 Jordan Mason, RB MIN, Age 26

No longer behind the great CMC, Mason’s situation is murky in Minnesota… let’s clear it up:

• Filling in for CMC, Mason found fantasy relevance in SF to the tune of 800 yards & 3 TDs

• While this stat-line isn’t overly impressive, injuries slowed him down after a strong start (averaging nearly 19 ppg in Weeks 1-4)

• Mason flashed hard-to-ignore tackle-breaking ability in San Francisco, posting a career 5.6 YPC on limited usage

• Minnesota coughed up a 5th round pick, and $10m across 2 years to acquire Mason’s services - signaling commitment in some capacity

• Mason’s current competition is 30 year old Aaron Jones - who still has some pop - but isn’t the juggernaut he used to be

• Whoever comes out on top in this elite offense - will be a strong RB2 next season

Mason is a nice depth piece with more pros than cons, but don’t count on him taking the job and running with it long-term. I’d consider him a hold if you’re in the mix (or close to it), and a buy if you’re RB room needs so depth. TBF - I wouldn’t trade much more than a late second for him.

 🟢 Brenton Strange, TE JAX, Age 24

Strange is now the Jaguars’ unquestioned TE1 after Evan Engram’s move to Denver. Here’s why the former second round pick is a must-stash:

• He logged 40 catches for 411 yards and 2 TDs in 2024, demonstrating solid production as a rookie

• With Engram out, Strange scored double digits in 5/8 games (close to 6/8) and was TE10 or better in 4

• Strange is a Liam Coen guy. Jacksonville’s new head coach emphasized tight end involvement in both the run and pass game in his previous stops

• With Kirk gone, Engram gone and Gabe for sure losing his 40+ targets, Strange is gonna get his share, even with Hunter joining the fold

While I don’t see Strange taking quite the leap Trey McBride took in year 2, I do see him becoming a viable starting TE with breakout potential. Look to move a 3rd round pick for your future starting TE.

 -- @dynastydetourtom

🛣️ Pick A Lane

Two writers take on an ADP toss-up that’s probably plaguing you in your rookie drafts, and a third one judges. This week, Tyler Warren vs. Colston Loveland

TE, Indianapolis Colts - ADP 58 | Rookie Pick 8

I’d love to rain on the Loveland victory parade before it even starts… but first— let’s look at some stats which will probably do it for me.

Who would you rather have?

• Player A: 104 receptions, 1,233 yards receiving, 218 yards rushing, 13 total touchdowns (12 without passing TD included) in 16 games. Averages to about 6.5 receptions per game, 77 receiving yards per game, 13 rushing yards per game, .75 touchdowns per game (taking out the passing TDs) or collectively: ~16.75 Half-PPR points per game

• Player B: 56 receptions, 582 yards receiving, -2 yards rushing, 5 total touchdowns in 10 games. Averages to about 5.6 receptions per game, 58 receiving yards per game, .5 touchdowns per game or collectively: ~11.6 Half-PPR points per game

Pretty obviously, Player A was the better player in college football last year. Player A is Tyler Warren and Player B is Colston Loveland. Not a super shocking reveal… I get it. What would a 5.15 difference in Half-PPR points per game mean for last years’ top NFL TEs? It would be like going from George Kittle (averaged 13.2 PPG, finished TE1 on a per game basis) to Pat Freiermuth (averaged 8.0 PPG, finished TE13 on a per game basis). I’ll be the first to admit this analogy is not a perfect science… but certainly still interesting.

Let’s get out in front of some rebuttals…

“Colston Loveland is two years younger and better than Warren was at his age”

Sure, Warren is two years senior to Loveland (technically 1.9), but let’s not forget this simple fact about NFL football: better players in college tend to do better in the NFL. As the stats above tell, Warren is currently the better player and DOMINATED last season, winning the John Mackey Award for best college tight end. Let’s look at some recent winners:

• 2024: Tyler Warren: Much better than Colston Loveland (you know this already)

• 2023: Brock Bowers: TE1 rookie season

• 2022: Brock Bowers: See above

• 2021: Trey McBride: TE2/TE3 last year (PPR vs. Half-PPR)…2nd most valuable TE in dynasty

• 2020: Kyle Pitts: 2nd TE in NFL history to reach 1k yards in rookie season…sadly trending in disappointment territory but still only 24 years old

• 2019: Harrison Bryant: Bust

• 2018: T.J. Hockenson: 3 top 5 TE finishes in six seasons…very solid TE

• 2017: Mark Andrews: Perennial stud…4 top 5 (Half-PPR) finishes in 7 seasons

A 6/8 hit rate (sadly taking out Pitts) is pretty damn good. Let’s remember in a dynasty format 2 “extra years” mean nothing if a player doesn’t pan out. More importantly… good tight ends have a longer shelf life than solid tight ends.

“Michigan sucked”

This is indisputably true— plus their offense was incredibly low volume.

BUT…Michigan didn’t suck in 2023, the year they won the National Championship. Their passing attack was still low volume, but want to guess their top pass catcher? Not sophomore TE Colston Loveland (649 yards and 4 TDs in 15 games). Rather, it was Roman Wilson who led the team, racking up 789 yard and 12 TDs in 15 games. Let me remind you that Roman Wilson’s injury plagued rookie year wasn’t the best even when he was on the field (although I’m still holding out hope for this season). Are we sure Loveland can command targets at the highest level?

So why Warren?

Warren finds himself in a superior situation in terms of opportunity compared to Loveland, who still has to win targets from a crowded group of pass catchers consisting DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, Luther Burden, Cole Kmet (yes he’s actually a good NFL TE). Warren steps into a roster where there is no alpha. I’m taking that opportunity every day for the former Mackey Award Winner, freakazoid athlete, indisputable dawg who will follow in the footsteps of greatness.

TE, Chicago Bears- ADP 69 | Rookie Pick 11

Chicago made a statement when they selected Loveland as the first tight end off the board, showing not only that he was their TE1 in the class, but that they felt it necessary to spend a top 10 pick on Loveland with Cole Kmet already inhabiting the position and two former first round wide receivers on the squad. Why? Well, this is the Ben Johnson show now, and he’s not going to let the depth chart he inherited define the offense he builds. Loveland is clearly a big part of that. Let’s peek at some prospect data points. Loveland is:

• Freshly 21 years old (2 years younger than Warren)

• 6’6”, 250 pounds, with a 65th percentile 40 yard dash (almost identical to Warren, the supposed freak athlete)

Are his 2024 stats as good? Definitely not. But I take at least a little stock in the fact that Warren exceeded him in that regard while with a much better quarterback and in his fifth year of college ball. The film tells you more than any stat sheet will, and as I dug in this offseason, I saw pretty quickly the differences that made me swing Loveland’s way.

So why Loveland? As I see it, the NFL has two types of tight ends. You have the Jason Witten and Zach Ertz-types of the olden days, or the Brock Bowers and Trey McBride-types of the future. The former are clunky zone-beaters that block downhill and fall forward in every collision. The latter, the more agile guys that win off the line, force you to play a safety on them instead of a linebacker, and can make guys miss in the open field. I know calling the guy that also played fullback and wildcat QB in college the antiquated player sounds crazy, but that fact of the matter is the vast majority of these guys’ points will be scored at the tight end position. As a tight end Warren is the former, Loveland is the latter.

PlayerProfiler actually comps Loveland to McBride and Warren to Witten, but to me Tyler Warren is so obviously Dalton Kincaid. People will tell you Warren’s landing spot is a dream compared to Loveland’s because of the lack of competition for targets. Miss me with that. Tyler Warren’s current situation is identical to Kincaid’s, except that instead of an MVP quarterback his short term outlook hinges on a Daniel Jones rebirth and then some. I’m taking the guy who has his franchise quarterback (who is about to remind everyone why he was such a highly touted prospect after a learning rookie year) and was Ben Johnson’s must have weapon amongst all rookies and NFL players in the offense that will define success as a head coach. I’m taking the two years younger prospect that much better resembles the top dynasty tight ends of today. I’m taking Colston Loveland.

As much as I respect Jesse's Warren worship and the Mackey Award track record, I’m rolling with Ryan on this one. The NFL told us what it thinks: Loveland was the first TE off the board, and Ben Johnson made sure he was part of his offense. The athleticism, the age, the modern TE profile — it all points to Loveland having a higher long-term ceiling. Warren might be more “ready” right now, but in dynasty, I want the guy who could be Trey McBride 2.0 in two years. Give me Loveland.

Let us know what lane your picking… and feel free to bash the other’s argument on our socials. Stay tuned for another Preseason Pulse newsletter this time next week, and be sure to follow us @dynastydetour on Instagram and X/Twitter to get our reactions and opinions in between issues, as well as email us with any questions at [email protected]. See you out on the road 🚘️.