Garrett Wilson Deep Dive ✈️

It’s time for the Pit Stop, the most comprehensive look into some of dynasty fantasy football’s biggest names that you’ll find anywhere on the world wide web. This week I tell you anything you ever needed to know about Garrett Wilson, and what to do with the new longest tenured New York Jet. Let’s hit the Detour.

— DynastyDetourRyan

✈️ Under The Hood: Garrett Wilson

The high-flying former Buckeye reunites with his college QB in the city that never sleeps. Is it time to wake up to Wilson?

Wilson’s time in New York has been simultaneously messy and clean. Amidst the constant turmoil that defines the Jets, Wilson has totaled three 1,000 yard seasons without a game missed. His quarterback carousel now rotates to his old pal Justin Fields, but whether the horse wearing number five spends the next six years rising up or sliding down, we will just have to see. Let’s get into it.

I don’t have to tell you that there’s some clouds and some silver linings here. His consistency in chaos speaks volumes about Wilson as a receiver. He’s effective at all aspects of the position, even with at times inept quarterback play and a lack of weapons around him to keep defenses honest. But what can we expect going forward?

🏈 The Player

Wilson’s best finish of his career by far came this past season, notching 101 receptions, 1104 yards and 7 touchdowns on 154 targets. A consistent target share and constant availability has led Wilson to WR10, WR26, and WR21 finishes during his time in the league, but let’s dig deeper:

• Target Dominance - Wilson has lived and died by targets his entire career, and the Jets have been top 11 in pass attempts all three years since Wilson turned pro. He has yet to finish a season with less than 25 receptions more than the next highest Jet wide receiver or tight end.

• Red Zone - The power of friendship saw Wilson cede red zone work to Adams (38% RZ target share) last year, Wilson’s first year with a red zone target share below 30%. He still doubled his career touchdown total by finding the end zone seven times, the biggest contributor to vaulting him to his first WR1 finish.

• Health - Wilson has yet to miss a game in the NFL, and no significant injury history prior. He’s had a few dings, but who hasn’t.

Rodgers’ first healthy season in New York showed flashes of what he is capable of, but certainly there is even more to tap into. They say life is 10% what happens to you and 90% how you deal with it. Garrett Wilson’s fantasy outlook is the opposite. Get this dude some help and I am confident you’ll start seeing some big numbers.

🏙️ The Situation

Wilson just recently signed an extension that keeps him with the Jets until 2030. Despite being stuck in what could only be described as the concrete jungle where your quarterback will probably be in the CFL soon, he has made the most of it. Will he again this year?

Justin Fields: The 2020 Ohio State teammates played 8 games together, in which Wilson totaled 43 receptions, 723 yards, and 6 touchdowns. Fields has struggled to keep a starting job in the league, and when he does, he hasn’t been particularly great at propping up receivers the same way.

Fields isn’t a total stranger to good fantasy WR performances, but it isn’t something that follows him either. This is due in large part to his low passing volume. Rodgers buoyed Wilson to a WR1 finish last year throwing just over 35 passes a game. Fields has only thrown above that mark in a game 5 times in his career, zero times last year.

In his four seasons, Fields has thrown for 191.2, 149.5, 208.7, and most recently 184.3 yards per game. That would be 20th, 28th, 30th, and 32nd in the NFL last year. Of the 12 NFL teams outside the top 20 in pass attempts last year, only five supported a receiver with a top 30 finish, and only four a receiver in the top 24 in PPG. If the volume isn’t there, touchdowns become essential. Only one of the receivers in these clusters (Jerry Jeudy) notched their finish without 7+ TDs, Wilson’s current career high.

The Offense: New HC Aaron Glenn brought over former Lions Passing Game Coordinator Tanner Engstrand to build his offense, likely bringing with him many of Detroit’s offensive concepts. While the 2025 Jets figure to be trailing more often than the 2024 Lions, the likely emphasis on designed quarterback runs should offset a potential increase in passing volume. The result is likely to be a middle-of-the-pack or below-average pass attempt total overall.

Between Fields’ own ability, scheme, and infrequent red zone trips, Fields has never attempted more than 3.6 red zone passes a game in any season. The Lions went to their running back on 53% of their red zone snaps last year, the second highest clip in the league behind the Falcons. Wilson likely will not see a whole lot of love from short range, and would need to convert his opportunities at a really high rate to turn in another 7+ touchdown year.

🛠️ Putting It All Together

So how does this all figure to work out? I’ll tell ya…

• Wilson: How many times the ball is thrown, how well the ball is thrown, and if it is thrown for touchdowns are the questions that will determine how this year shakes out. Wilson’s year-long contributions have been solid, but it is worth noting that he only turned in four top 18 weekly finishes last year, four the year before, and six his rookie year, and I don’t see reason to believe these will jump up this year.

• Fields: While he has flashed, Fields still has not fully put it together as a passer. If he is to keep the job, which he should for quite a while, since I doubt the Jets care about losing games, pass volume and quality will not be at a premium. His history of low yardage totals and lower red zone pass usage don’t bode incredibly well for anyone catching balls on the Jets this year.

• Coaching: The Glenn/Engstrand regime shows promise, and though it won’t be overnight, they do have the potential to give this franchise life again. As long as they’re at the helm, zone running and physical football will be this team’s identity, but as we saw with the Detroit team from which they hail, a rising tide lifts all boats. A WR1 in a good NFL offense is almost always a great fantasy asset, especially someone with the talent of Wilson.

The Jets are not going to be particularly good, and this offense, especially the passing aspect, is not going to be any better than average, and probably below that. That doesn’t mean that we should write Wilson off, though…

📊 Outlook

Short term: Wilson will not repeat as a WR1 this year. The pass attempts won’t be there, the red zone opportunities won’t be there, the offense won’t be on the field enough. This won’t be his worst season either. Much like the ever-steady Terry McLaurin, Wilson has demonstrated the talent to finish as a middling WR2 to high-end WR3 no matter how disastrous his offense. He will finish in the WR18-WR26 range.

Long term: Things won’t go great now, but the second Wilson is paired with a decent quarterback we will see him rise. Terry McLaurin had to wait until his sixth year in the league, but we just saw this exact phenomenon with him, finishing WR7 in his first year with Jayden Daniels. Wilson’s turnaround should hopefully not take this long, and I have faith that if the Jets prove yet again to be incapable of getting things going that Wilson’s contract is team friendly enough to get him somewhere decent. I do truly believe Aaron Glenn and company will grab a franchise QB next year and get this team in gear, and Wilson will turn in 3-4 top 15 seasons from then on out.

Verdict: This right here is what prompted me to write this in the first place. This all could work exactly in your favor, if you play it right. This isn’t the season Wilson makes a statement, and as weeks go by and his totals come in below last year’s, his value will decline. I have no issue with you buying Wilson now as a rebuilding team, but I will be trying to make my purchases at the trade deadline, when owners are frustrated. The second Wilson gets a QB, whether in New York or eslewhere, you will no longer be able to buy him and you will kick yourself you didn’t. That could still be 2-3 years away, but you do not want to wait too long and miss the buy window. If you have Wilson on a win now team that badly needs contributions this year, I’d move him now. Otherwise, ride the wave and reap the benefits one day.

Wilson is my current WR10 and 24th overall player in SFTEP formats, and you will be able to buy him for a mid 2026 1st and flex/rotation player at the deadline. Do that.

 — DynastyDetourRyan

Thanks for sticking with me, Wilson will make it worth your while one day. Stay tuned for another Preseason Pulse newsletter next Monday, and The Pit Stop next Thursday. Be sure to follow us @dynastydetour on Instagram and X/Twitter to get our reactions and opinions in between issues, as well as email us with any questions at [email protected]. See you out on the road 🚘️.