As tweet after tweet from Adam Schefter rolls in, it can be a little tough to see not only who is going where, but what it means for fantasy assets on the teams they’re joining AND the teams they’re leaving. Today’s going to be about mapping out the new league landscape and starting to scout guys around the league as rookie drafts approach and offers get floated around. Without further adieu...
Kenneth Walker to Kansas City - 3 yrs / $45M
Obviously the biggest fantasy move of free agency, the reigning Super Bowl MVP heads to the evil empire. While I continue to have durability concerns, it’s hard to believe that when on the field, this will be anything but positive for Walker. This last post-season showed us what he can do in a bell-cow role, and he absolutely will be in one again getting paid this kind of money. The Chiefs saw fit to lose key defensive players to make this happen, and we could be back to the shootout Kansas City days again. He’s going to feast.
Better Roads Ahead:
Chiefs’ Offense - While the Walker addition doesn’t move anyone’s needle specifically, the loss of key defensive players means that the days of a suffocating Spagnuolo defense handing the offense big leads and allowing them to just possess the ball are behind us. Everyone out there should benefit from a more aggressive offensive strategy.
Could Be Hitting a Bit of Traffic:
Any Chiefs RB - Isiah Pacheco heads now to Detroit, saving his stock and opening the potential for him to see the David Montgomery workload in Detroit. Post-Ben Johnson, this role isn’t the most prolific, but it’s better than what any remaining KC back will see, which is little to nothing.
D.J. Moore to Buffalo - Traded for 2nd Round Pick
HUGE. While Moore is likely past his prime, and the Bills certainly do love their ground game, especially in the red zone, going from the busy Chicago WR room to becoming an instant number one option on a top offense in the league will never be a bad thing. How much Moore has left in the tank, I don’t know, but I think his production will certainly last much longer here. Stefon Diggs was able to amass 4 straight WR1 season’s as Josh Allen’s best friend, and D.J. Moore has put up two WR2 seasons in Joe Brady’s offense in Carolina with some of the worst QB play around. Clearly Brady wanted a reunion, moving serious capital for him. I think the floor is high, and the ceiling is higher than many are thinking.
Better Roads Ahead:
Josh Allen - Allen’s ground game is what makes him so dominant as a fantasy asset, but adding a true pass catcher will make this offense run even better. What else is there to say?
Bears Pass Catchers - I don’t think anyone in particular is a massive beneficiary here, but I think everyone gets a bump for sure. I’ve seen a lot of Luther Burden hype in the wake of this move, but I clocked him coming out of college as more of a gadget than a true WR coming out of college and I stand by it still. That doesn’t change just because he has the opportunity to be a WR2 now. His usage still will increase, but with Odunze, Loveland, and others around still, I don’t think he becomes a consistent feature target, Moore on the team or not.
Could Be Hitting a Bit of Traffic:
Dalton Kincaid - I think Kincaid could very well survive, or even thrive due to this move, but going from the de facto best passing option to the second best certainly can spell bad news as well. That coupled with the extension of Dawson Knox, who serves only as a pest taking Kincaid’s action, means initial signs aren’t elite.
Khalil Shakir - Even more so than Knox, Shakir’s toes get stepped on here, and unlike Knox I don’t really see a way this could be a positive. It was a fun run, but with only so much volume to go around, Shakir stock’s pretty dead in the water.
Michael Pittman to PIttsburgh - 3 yrs / $59M after trade
This move especially makes it seem like Rodgers will be back again in Pittsburgh, and until we hear otherwise I’ll be analyzing the Steelers as if he is. I can’t say I’m overly thrilled for Pittman, though. Obviously there weren’t many weapons in the receiving game last year, and Mike McCarthy now heads to the Steel City to try and revamp what was a really weak offense last year, but I’m just not sure how much action Pittman is going to see. He’ll likely serve as second fiddle to D.K. Metcalf, but there is a lot of overlap in what they provide, and only so many passes to go out. Couple that with the QB uncertainty beyond this year, and I really don’t love it.
Better Roads Ahead:
Aaron Rodgers - Adding a second capable WR is undoubtedly great for the QB, who should be returning to a much different offense this year. I think this team is going to move the ball much more in Rodgers’ traditional style, and fantasy output should definitely rise.
Alec Pierce - Pierce definitely got the most surprising bag of free agency thus far, and with Pittman’s departure now slots in as the certain number one option to an Indy team that by most reports will have Daniel Jones back by training camp. I’m more hesitant than most to declare Pierce a potential top 10 WR this year, but his involvement in this offense is undoubtedly on the ups.
Could Be Hitting a Bit of Traffic:
D.K. Metcalf - I do still think Metcalf serves as the top option in Pittsburgh, and the implication that Rodgers is returning again is certainly welcome news for the team’s WR1, but he definitely will lose his status as the obvious go to guy. Pittman’s availability is far from guaranteed week-to-week, but when he’s out there, Metcalf will be sharing more than he was last year without a doubt.
Daniel Jones - As Jones attempts to bounce back from his Achilles injury and repeat his MVP-conversation output from 2025, it certainly will not be easier without a quality WR like Pittman. If Pierce can assume the role, as the team clearly believes he can, things should remain decently steady, but it’s certainly a question mark.
Tyler Allgeier to Arizona - 2 yr / $12.25M
Allgeier’s momentum after a promising rookie year was shut down in a hurry as the Falcons saw fit to spend the eighth overall pick in 2023 on the incomparable Bijan Robinson. Living in Robinson’s shadow the rest of his tenure, save the occasional touchdown vulturing, Allgeier owners were probably excited to see what was in store. As one of them, I’m quite disappointed. I knew he wasn’t likely to be handed a bell-cow situation, but I thought early down and red zone work in a half decent offense could absolutely be in the cards. Maybe it is, but there will be a lot of competition in getting there with Arizona.
Better Roads Ahead:
Bijan Robinson - Though it’s tough to imagine the Falcons don’t address the position at all, clearly they weren’t willing to shell out to keep last season’s 1-2 punch intact, and it’s hard to imagine anyone too impactful comes in by way of the draft. Bijan’s floor and ceiling somehow just got higher.
Could Be Hitting a Bit of Traffic:
Trey Benson - Benson believers ate a bit of humble pie last year as the opportunity they were waiting for finally arrived… and went pretty much nowhere. Clearly the Cardinals weren’t too enthused either, not only signing Allgeier to a considerable deal, but re-working James Conner’s contract to keep him around as well. Arizona’s backfield is as busy as it gets now, and clearly Benson’s believers in the building are few and far between. He could become a complete no-factor very quickly.
James Conner - Re-working Conner’s deal may have been a salary cap move to avoid cutting him more than anything, but he certainly was in line for considerable work yet again in Arizona had things remained the same. That is no longer the case, as the punishing run-style of Allgeier steps alllll over the toes of what James Conner does best. Conner has been efficient for the Cards, no doubt, but as he enters his age 31 season, it’s safe to say this is the beginning of the end.
Tua Tagovailoa to Atlanta - 1 yr / $1.3M
Tua’s release from Miami came as somewhat of a surprise, but with a new staff in town they clearly wanted to start from scratch. It seemed likely Tua might serve as someone’s backup for a minute before getting a true opportunity, but clearly Atlanta saw fit to give him a look as a starter right away. It’s a winnable job and will likely come down to a training camp battle surveyed by new head coach Kevin Stefanski, who appears not too thrilled with the QB room he inherited. Stefanski’s scheme plays to Tua’s strengths really well I think, and with better pass catchers than Tua had last year, I think he could easily become a mid QB2 with week-to-week upside
Better Roads Ahead:
Kyle Pitts - It’s not super common for a new staff to come in and lock guys that were part of past failures down long term, so I don’t think the team opting for a one year franchise tag reflects negatively on Pitts’ perception by the team at all. A healthy, perhaps improved Michael Penix or a Tua Tagovailoa eager to re-establish himself are not the worst options at QB. Tua, however, I think is the better option for Pitts. Tua’s unrivaled time to throw means a lot of balls come out early, and as a big target who can get separation vs. his matchups quickly, Pitts could be in for a lot of looks. That, coupled with Stefanksi’s affinity for tight ends, means it’s officially time to fire up the Pitts propaganda machine yet again.
Could Be Hitting a Bit of Traffic:
Drake London - While things were likely not going to get immediately better for London with just Penix in town, I think the team’s very understandable, primarily financially motivated decision to swap Kirk Cousins for Tua doesn’t bode super well either. Penix was able to get London the ball at a decent clip some weeks, but with Tua now looking likely to take center stage, I don’t love the pairing. Tua is a very risk averse quarterback, and I just can’t quite imagine him hitting the tight window, long developing routes that London made a living off of last year. He’s not sunk, but it’s not ideal.
Michael Penix - The shaky first year starter adding to an extensive history of serious knee injuries under a new coaching staff was probably not going to get handed the job without a fight. It’s not impossible he retains QB1 status, at least for a time, but I don’t think this bodes well at all.
There is so much more to talk about, which is why we’re starting next week with even more free agency! We’ll give you the run down on big names like Travis Etienne, Romeo Doubs, Malik Willis, and more, as well as address any more signings between now and then. Definitely keep your eye on your inbox.
-- Dynasty Detour Ryan
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