Kyren Williams Deep Dive 🐏

Let’s talk about the newly extended, fumble-prone, questionably explosive, high-volume RB1 for Sean McVay’s Rams. The Rams clearly believe in him, but should you? I’m not convinced. Let’s hit the Detour.

— Dynasty Detour Tom

🐏 Under The Hood: Kyren Williams

Before Rams fans ready their pitchforks this is hardly a Kyren slander job — much closer to an honest assessment of where he should be valued both short-term & long…

💰 The Extension

The Rams gave Kyren Williams a 3-year, $33M extension this offseason — with $23M guaranteed. I was not completely sold on the Rams extending Kyren. I thought the Corum and Hunter picks opened the door for them to let him walk. They did not. This extension tells us two things:

1. The Rams believe Kyren gives them their best chance to win right now and…

2. Sean Mcvay is committed to Kyren as his short-term RB1.

    

I emphasize short-term, as the Rams do have an out in 2027 where they can avoid any dead cap hit . If they did move on, Kyren would only be their bonafide workhorse for this year and 2026. A 2 season window.

For fantasy managers, it’s easy to look at that deal and say: “RB1 security on a McVay offense? Lock it in.” But before you hit cruise control, let’s take a look under the hood. 

🏈 The Player

Let’s start with the good.

Kyren finished as the RB7 in PPR scoring in both 2023 and 2024. He’s been a consistent contributor, handling elite workloads with 228 carries in 2023 and a massive 316 carries in 2024. He added 66 total receptions over the two seasons and totaled 26 rushing touchdowns across that span.

Those are bell-cow numbers. That’s rare these days.

But there are real concerns — and they’re not small.

🚨 Explosiveness (Or Lack Thereof)

• Just 2 runs of 20+ yards on 316 carries last season

• That’s tied for 44th in the NFL — fewer than guys like Tank Bigsby and Antonio Gibson

• Rams ranked dead last in explosive run rate (1.8%)

• Yards per carry (YPC):

  • 2023: 5.02 (4th among RBs)

  • 2024: 4.11 (33rd among RBs)

   

That’s a steep drop. The offensive line was mostly healthy. The scheme didn’t change. So what happened?

It could’ve been his offseason foot injury, which never popped up again on weekly injury reports but may have lingered. Or… maybe he just came back to Earth. His PFF rushing grade dropped from 90.5 (3rd) to 74.0 (27th).

That’s a real efficiency cliff.

🧹 Ball Security

Here’s the big one. Kyren fumbled 5 times in the regular season — tied for 2nd most in the NFL. Only Rhamondre Stevenson had more. He added another fumble in the playoffs, too.

For comparison:

• Saquon Barkley: 2 fumbles in 378 touches

• Bijan Robinson: 1 fumble in 365 touches

• Kyren: 6 fumbles in 350 touches

There’s no faster way to lose your job as a running back than to stop protecting the football — especially in an offense as timing-based as McVay’s.

🏙️ The Situation

The good news? The Rams’ offense is still a great place to be a running back.

• They finished top-10 in scoring in 2024 despite Matthew Stafford battling through nagging injuries.

• They have a creative, modern scheme under Sean McVay that consistently produces red zone opportunities.

• Kyren saw 43 red zone touches last season, 5th most among RBs. When this offense is clicking, the opportunities come fast and furious.

But it’s not all sunshine.

Sean McVay clearly wants more out of the RB room — and he said as much with his 2024 and 2025 draft picks.

• The Rams used a 3rd-round pick in 2024 on Blake Corum, the national championship hero out of Michigan.

• Then in 2025, they spent a 4th-rounder on Auburn’s Jarquez Hunter, who McVay said “there is no question that’s who I want… that was my top player for today" when the Rams traded up to select him.

  • Reports out of camp say McVay has raved about Hunter's balance and burst, and he’s already seeing some rotational work with the 1s.

     

It’s still Kyren’s backfield — for now — but there’s a very real chance one (or both) of these guys start siphoning carries as early as this year. Especially if the fumbles keep happening.

And then there’s the elephant in the room: Matthew Stafford.

He turns 37 this season and has battled injuries to his elbow, spine, and thumb in recent years.
There’s been speculation that any season could be his last, and if/when he retires? The Rams’ offense will take a hit — no matter how “QB-proof” McVay’s system is.

If Kyren’s dynasty value is based on:

• Volume

• Scoring opportunities

• A high-functioning offense

Then anything that eats into touches, goal-line work, or overall team efficiency is a threat — and right now, all three are on the horizon.

📊 Outlook

Short term: Kyren is about as stable as it gets for 2025. The Rams extended him for a reason — $23M guaranteed doesn’t land in your lap if the team isn’t confident in your role. Sean McVay’s offense is still one of the league’s most efficient scoring units, and Kyren is the clear red zone back on a team that should continue to find the end zone regularly. He’s proven capable of handling big workloads and producing RB1 finishes, even without elite efficiency. While he may not rip off 40-yard gains, he’s a touchdown machine with a PPR-safe floor. Pencil him in for another RB8–RB14 type season, assuming health holds and he doesn’t cough up too many more fumbles.

Long term: The picture gets murkier. The Rams have drafted RBs in back-to-back years — spending Day 2 capital on Blake Corum in 2024 and adding Jarquez Hunter in 2025, whom McVay has openly praised in camp. At best, that’s depth insurance. At worst, it’s a brewing committee. Add in the uncertainty around Matthew Stafford’s future (he turns 37 this year and could retire any offseason), and Kyren’s environment might shift fast. Not to mention: his guaranteed money is gone after 2026, meaning the Rams could move on with zero dead cap. For a back whose dynasty value relies heavily on situation and scoring opportunity, that’s a real long-term risk.

Verdict: For contenders? He’s a fine hold. If you need a locked-in RB2 with RB1 upside in a high-scoring offense, Kyren delivers. But if someone offers Chase Brown straight up, I’d take it. Same tier of production, but Brown’s runway is longer and less crowded.

If you’re not contending, Kyren is a must-sell. Look at the names ranked below him on KeepTradeCut:

• J.J. McCarthy (a QB1 ceiling play)

• Rashee Rice (suspended, but tied to Mahomes)

• 2027 1st round pick (the kind of asset that gains value by doing nothing)

Those are easy swaps for a soon to be 25-year-old RB with back-to-back RB1 seasons — before the wheels start to wobble.

Kyren is currently RB10 on KTC and 47th overall. That’s likely the peak. Make sure you exit before the decline gets priced in.

 — DynastyDetourTom

Thanks for sticking with me. Stay tuned for another Preseason Pulse newsletter next Monday, and The Pit Stop next Thursday. Be sure to follow us @dynastydetour on Instagram and X/Twitter to get our reactions and opinions in between issues, as well as email us with any questions at [email protected]. See you out on the road 🚘️.