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- NFL Week 10 Dynasty Detour
Week 10 was one of those weeks that made you question everything you know about football. TreVeyon Henderson went nuclear, Bryce Young went missing, and somewhere out there, Alec Pierce turned into a top-15 receiver. Let’s hit the Detour.
🚘 Fast Lane Fun Facts
Here are 6 crazy stats from the past few weeks to take into Week 11.
Since Jacoby Brissett took over Week 6, Trey McBride is averaging 11.5 targets, 8 receptions, and 82 yards per game to go with 5 TDs in 4 games. He’s 10+ targets clear of the next closest TEs over this stretch: Tyler Warren (36), Kyle Pitts (35), and Oronde Gadsden (33), all of whom have played one more game than McBride.
Dynasty Take: With Kyler Murray sidelined at least 3 more weeks, and his status as the rest of season starter in jeopardy when he returns, McBride is shaping up to be a complete difference maker and league-winner for owners. Oh, by the way, McBride’s 27.7 TEP FPTS the last 4 games trail only Johnathan Taylor (higher than Chase, London, JSN, and CMC).
Bucs TE Cade Otton is averaging 8.7 tgts/game, 6.7 rec/game, and 17.4 TEP FPTS/game with 0 weeks below 10 in 7 games without Evans and Godwin the last two seasons
Dynasty Take: Egbuka’s arrival this year has put a damper on Otton’s production amidst the absences this year (12.8 PPG) versus last year (23.4 PPG), but clearly he steps up consistently. Worries about Godwin’s ability to come back from last year’s injury mean we could have a few more weeks of top-shelf TE finishes. A gamble on buying Otton cheap if possible could pay off big should Godwin not be able to make his way back.
Alec Pierce is PPR WR14 since returning from his injury 5 weeks ago.
Dynasty Take: Pierce is 10th in targets during that stretch, and has carved out a significant role in what looks to be one of the most efficient offenses the rest of the way. He’s a fine WR3/Flex option for team’s looking to add to their rotation, but the short sample size of success for both he and this team as a whole, as well as competition from Tyler Warren and other talented receivers long term, make me apprehensive to add Pierce for long term return on investment.
Since Tyler Shough took over in Week 8, Chris Olave (14.9 PPG before, 14.7 since) and Juwan Johnson (11.7 TEP PPG before, 12.5 since) have maintained their production without issue.
Dynasty Take: Concussion history has me worried to pay the price Olave is once again starting to command, but both provide high floor (8 games over 10 PTS for Olave, 7 for Johnson) options to add to teams in need of some point getters on their way to the post-season. Just make sure you keep in mind the Saints’ long term timeline and construction are very much in flux when assessing their dynasty value.
Over the last 4 weeks, Troy Franklin is averaging 9 targets, 1 TD, and 15.8 FPTS per game.
Dynasty Take: The Broncos usual go-to red zone WR Courtland Sutton has struggled to build off of his WR15 season last year, but I’m not yet convinced Franklin is the heir apparent. Franklin only has 4.5 rec/game and one game over 40 yards during the same stretch. Franklin will have to live on big plays and touchdowns, but with the 6th most deep targets and 4th most red zone targets in the NFL, it’s not out of the picture. Will Denver give Franklin the chance to be the WR1 next season as Sutton fades? Could go either way.
The Buccaneers have been without Evans and Godwin since Week 5. In that time Emeka Egbuka has 44.2 FPTS. Tez Johnson has 56.8.
Dynasty Take: Johnson’s success over this stretch is much more dependent on touchdowns (4 TDs to Egbuka’s 1) than usage (23 tgts to Egbuka’s 38). Egbuka will take back top billing, but Johnson provides week to week upside while he remains WR2.
-- Dynasty Detour Ryan
📝 Traffic Report: Is TreVeyon a Lineup Lock?
Let’s get into some of the best and worst performances of Week 10, and what you need to do about them:
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