Week 12 Preview + RB Committee Rundown

It’s officially the Witching Hour of fantasy football seasons, but that doesn’t mean rebuilding teams across the world can’t continue to position themselves as well. We have some advice for you all that should shed some light on 2026 pick valuation and running back validity league-wide. Let’s hit the Detour.

🔮 Traffic Forecast

Trade deadlines are upon us, and even if yours have passed, the magic of dynasty fantasy football is that there’s no offseason. Here are situations I’m watching this week for the very short and quite long term ⬇️ 

Wide Receiver Help Wanted… Where?

The incoming receiver class, though missing a darling potential 1.01 prospect at the moment, is full of enticing athletes with the potential to be a part of the next generation of big name pass catchers. Though a few franchises have been believed to be dipping into the pool for their new top pass catcher all year, I’m now watching two new offenses to possibly invest in the best the draft has to offer: Buffalo and San Francisco.

• The Bills have been stringing it together at receiver since Stefon Diggs forced his departure at the start of last season, but with the news that they are once again benching Keon Coleman coming off a week where practice squad player Terrell Shavers handled the bulk of the receiving work, I wouldn’t be surprised if Buffalo goes out and gets one of the class’ best to get Josh Allen some help. If Khalil Shakir doesn’t look convincing (likely) and new additions to the active roster Terrell Shavers and Mecole Hardman don’t turn out to be a revelation (even more likely), the Bills will likely be forced to address their dire WR situation through the draft.

• The Niners already invested in a first round receiver in 2024 with Ricky Pearsall, but between his very inconsistent health and contributions when healthy (1 catch for 0 yards last week), I’m officially a skeptic. Couple that with Brandon Aiyuk’s long, questionable absence and Jauan Jennings on the tail end of a contract dispute that left things largely unresolved and the Niners may be forced to dip in early again if they want their new $265M man Brock Purdy to have anyone to throw to.

• Dynasty Take: With a handful of really strong athletes in the class, maybe the mid-first round cliff we’ve been projecting for so long comes further back in rookie drafts than we thought. Monitor and treat your mid-to-late 1sts accordingly.

Is Metcalf The Way to Greener Pastures?

Some recent bumps, Aaron Rodgers very short time remaining under center, and the bewilderment around age 27 have D.K. currently sitting outside many contender buy discussions. A solid performance this week makes him a no-brainer for me.

• Trips to Europe, tough opposing defenses, funky game scripts, and more have left Metcalf with three straight single digit efforts. Couple that with the confusing age bubble he currently sits on and many owners and buyers across the league are very unsure of what to do with the 27 year old. Personally? I’m ready to pull the trigger if he puts together a convincing performance in this one. A strong skill-set, still capable QB, and 6/7 games over 10 points previous to this cold streak give me all the confidence I need to purchase heading into the playoffs.

• Dynasty Take: Yes, Rodgers will be gone after this year, and the Steelers QB situation that Metcalf is quite locked into will very much be in flux again, but I trust that the Steelers will once again opt not to bring in a project but yet another bridge. A good outing against the Bears this week would tell me all I need to know ahead of advantageous matchups against Baltimore, Miami, and Detroit in Weeks 14-16. I’d be willing to buy for this year with the potential for a good 2-3 more.

-- Dynasty Detour Ryan

What’s With All The Committees?

As Bijan tries his best to defy Allgeier vulturing, other RBs are trying to put together big seasons in true committees. Just how possible is it?

“There is no I in team… but there is an M-E in that MFer.” 

One of about 10,000 profound quotes from Kobe Bryant, I feel like this reflects how a lot of us wish some teams would approach our fantasy players. I know for a fact that every single Bijan Robinson fantasy owner would give anything for Raheem Morris to just give the ball to him 30 times a game. Christian McCaffrey has seen one of his biggest workloads in a long time, and even though he only averages 3.66 yards per carry, his 267 combined ground and air touches have made him the 2nd best RB of the year. It’s just common sense that more touches means more opportunities means more fantasy production. Over the last 5 seasons, if a player has finished top 5 in touches, they have finished no worse than 15th on the season (Dalvin Cook in 2021). 68% of the time, that quantity will land a player in the top 5. That is what makes a committee so frustrating. It not only hinders the ceiling of a player but can lead to inconsistency during a week where the lesser of the two players gets the hot hand or, even worse, goal line touches. How often can RBs still retain value when sharing a backfield? I wanted to take a look at teams and duos who have managed to place two RBs in the top 25 over the last 5 seasons and see what it means for some of these promising young RBs who are currently stuck in committee jail.

2021

Melvin Gordon (RB18) & Javonte Williams (RB17)

After multiple years as a workhorse for the Chargers, Gordon put in one last gasp as Javonte Williams started his career. This backfield split carries exactly; each had 203, but Javonte started to steal the spotlight towards the end of the year. Melvin was definitely the more efficient of the two runners, but youth won out in the end, though not permanently. Javonte stayed injured/stuck in a shared backfield for many years as his efficiency never improved (until this unbelievable year in Dallas).

Aaron Jones (RB12) & AJ Dillon (RB23)

In year 3 of the “Free Aaron Jones” experience (a plea for the Packers to use the ultra-efficient 3rd down back more often), Aaron Jones battled injuries and ceded some goal line touches to the young bruising back Dillon. Although this was still Aaron Jones' backfield, he experienced his worst fantasy finish since winning the starting job. Dillon, meanwhile, became a short yard specialist and continues his role to this day.

2022

Jamaal Williams (RB8) & D’Andre Swift (RB23)

Hello, Ben Johnson! Another case of the grizzled vet and the young change-of-pace back, this backfield started a trend that continues to this day for the Lions. Williams had his first RB1 finish of his career this season and never reached these heights again, as he managed to cross the goal line 17 times, even with much poorer efficiency than Swift. Swift brought the speed that Williams lacked to this backfield and provided some dynamism through the air. After a pitstop in Philly, Swift has once again emerged as a valuable asset under Ben Johnson, in Chicago this time, leading the backfield and averaging a career-best FPPG.

2023

Jahmyr Gibbs (RB10) & David Montgomery (RB13)

This was the follow-up to the Williams and Swift duo and perfected what the previous tandem started. Even though the Lions burned a valuable 1st round pick on Gibbs, that did not stop them from going and signing Montgomery to a deal in free agency to lead the backfield out of the gate. Although both battled injuries for a couple of games, Thunder & Lightning became an elite duo immediately, both finishing in the top 15 in rushing yards over expected. This duo would appear again in 2024, but with Gibbs at RB2 on the year, as he dominated much more in the passing game and proved to be the healthier/more efficient option moving forward. Montgomery was still able to rack up production, finishing as RB18 and infuriating Gibbs owners everywhere with his goal line efficiency. This trend seems like it may continue in 2025, a remarkable trend for the Detroit backfield.

Raheem Mostert (RB2) & DeVon Achane (RB24)

Just sneaking in at the bottom of this list, this duo would have ranked a lot higher if Achane remained healthy. He was the most efficient runner in the league for the season and managed to rack up a top 5 finish in fantasy points per game with just under 18/game. Much like the above duo, this combo of powerful runner and speed made the Dolphins 2023 backfield terrifying for opposing defenses and led to some monster outings, highlighted by the 70 point outing vs the Broncos where these two finished with 45.2 and 51.7 points respectively. Mostert would cede the backfield the next year due to injury and Achane has continued to be a dominant force to this day.

2024

Bucky Irving (RB14) & Rachaad White (RB24)

For Rachaad White fantasy owners, it was hard to go from a top 10 finish in his 2nd season to a shared backfield in 2024. It was made even worse by the fact Bucky Irving is just flat out awesome. In just his rookie season, Bucky managed to be in the air of Jahmyr Gibbs, averaging 0.88 rushing yards over expected per attempt, generating extra yards on over 40% of his carries. Both were able to be productive for the whole season, but Bucky really stole the show down the stretch, racking up 6 top 10 rushing performances over the last 8 weeks. This was another example of a rookie coming in and adding a new dynamism to a backfield, and with Sean Tucker’s emergence, it looks like White might be on his way out of Tampa soon

2025

This season there are set to be no new backfields that are able to land 2 of their players in the top 25, but a couple remain close (Warren & Gainwell, Dobbins & Harvey, and Walker & Charbonnet). Of these, only Denver matches the trend we have seen with previously successful committees: the pairing of a young, change-of-pace rookie and solid veteran runner. It is oddly reminiscent of the previous Denver committee of Gordon and Williams, but with Dobbins’ injury, it will not come to pass. I think that is the most important thing to garner from this inspection: Shared backfields do not produce fantasy results. Even in the best case scenario with the Lions, Gibbs took the reins and became the premiere player, the Lions are just good enough to buoy Montgomery’s production

The second takeaway is that more often than not when there are successful backfields, the younger, more dynamic back in the duo has gone on to have a top 10 season on their own in a later season. The only exception to the emergence of the younger back is the Packers duo, but Jones was both the older and the more efficient runners (in terms of rushing yards over expected), and was already garnering more touches than his counterpart. Of the older backs that do fit the trend, Montgomery has been the only secondary rusher to really hold on to his job, and that is because he remains to this day one of the more efficient running backs in the league, even more than Gibbs this year in some metrics. Teams obviously look at stats like this on a week-to-week and year-to-year basis.  It may take some time, but the efficiency and productivity will win out. So for all of the Bill-ievers wondering who the hell Jeremy McNichols is, TreVeyon owners who want to say “I told you so” after his breakout performance, and Kaleb Johnson owners who just want to get him in the committee in the first place, I urge you to stay patient. Old idiots get fired. Efficiency wins out. These teams want to win, and limiting their best option in their backfield will not last long. But until that committee breaks, I would not get your hopes up. History does not bode well.

-- Dynasty Detour John

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