Week 13 Preview + RB Free Agency Tracker

Happy Thanksgiving, Detourists! While our country shuts down over the weekend to allow everyone to gather with family and friends and celebrate, we dynasty fanatics will not have our appetite quenched. We remain gluttonous… we crave player breakouts, higher snap counts, and red zone target share. Fortunately for us, we have a whole slate of Thanksgiving football (+1 Black Friday game) to help distract us when we’ve had enough of hearing from Uncle Chris about the bunion on his toe (it has really hurt his marathon training apparently). We have some things to look out for as you take down a slice of pumpkin pie and settle into your couch for some holiday football (as well as some insights for Sunday). Then, a look ahead at running back free agency and what it means for guys on your team.. Let’s hit the Detour.

🔮 Traffic Forecast

Here’s what I’m watching for in the Thanksgiving games and beyond ⬇️ 

A Closer Look At The Early Game RBs

• Jahmyr Gibbs absolutely lit up the scoreboard last week against the worst run defense in the league, and I know for a fact all of his managers are buzzing. Although there are many numbers to choose from: 55.4 PPR points, 11 receptions, the breakaway 69-yard TD run to seal the deal. However, my eyes immediately dart towards the snap count.

  • Gibbs has long been the victim of an RB committee known as Sonic & Knuckles. Though the nickname is cool and the running game is effective for the Lions, Gibbs has rarely received the lion's share of carries, normally maxing at a 60-40 split. However, while searching for offense (and while trailing), the Lions have given him a 73% and 74% snap share these last two weeks, his highest of the season. If this continues, there is no doubt that Gibbs vaults forward as a top 3-5 RB for the rest of the year. Montgomery, although effective this whole year, may see his value be entirely reliant on TDs, which would make him a borderline flex play on a weekly basis.

• On the other side of the field, Josh Jacobs is playing through injury, adding onto existing struggles on the ground for Green Bay

  • The Packers rank bottom 6 in the league in terms of EPA per play. Most of this is due to offensive line play, as both Wilson and Jacobs have seen similar drops in rushing value over expected, but Wilson and Brooks may see a lot more time while Jacobs is coming back. This would not be a good sign for Jacobs, who has had a great fantasy season, even with his on-field inefficiencies.

Who Is the WR1 For Dallas?

• CeeDee Lamb has led the Cowboys over the last 3 years with monstrous numbers, seeing 150+ targets every season. His 2023 season, in which he led the NFL with 181 targets and 135 receptions, was incredible. Going into this season, there was no doubt that the trend would continue… but then George Pickens happened. The Cowboys made a trade which may not have even happened in a dynasty league, a 3rd round pick swap for one of only two receivers to top 1000 yards so far this season.

  • The last two weeks have made it clear that this is at least a 1A/1B relationship. Both are receiving similar target shares since the bye, and Pickens has been much more efficient at turning those into production. As we start moving towards the end of the season, there is plenty of food to eat in this high-powered offense, but Pickens is starting to grab more and more by the week.

IR Hangover or Big Time Concerns?

• I don’t own Lamar Jackson fantasy owner in any league, and for the first time in my entire life, I am grateful. Lamar just does not look right at all. All the underlying metrics say he has been ultra-efficient on the season, but since returning from IR, the dynamism out of the backfield has been gone. He has a total of 21 rushing yards over the last two weeks, a number he failed to top only twice in all of 2024, and over the last 3 weeks, his QBR has been below 50, a number he only reached twice all of last season. Until that comes back, Lamar remains one-dimensional as a passer, and that is going to severely limit him. Fortunately he gets to line up against the Bengals, one of the worst pass defenses in the league. Let’s see if he can shake off the rust.

  • At the same time, Joe Burrow comes back to play his second game of the season after a long trip to the IR. Joe Flacco did an incredible job playing substitute teacher, reviving Higgins' and Ja'Marr's fantasy value, but that was because Flacco refused to take sacks. Even if it was a throw away or risky ball, that ball got out. Let’s see whether Burrow can avoid the negative plays (and injury risk) that comes with taking hits while also being the same effective thrower we know.

Dynasty Outlook Madden Curse?

• The Madden Curse might be the weirdest and most eerie curse in sports, and it seems to have taken another victim. After one of the greatest seasons we have ever seen from an RB (that is no hyperbole either), Barkley has followed it up with quite the dud, and it is having serious ramifications on the Eagles' offense.

  • This year, the Eagles have dropped by 7% in their 3rd down conversion percentage, and that is because they have not been able to lean on their run game to create 3rd and manageable conversion opportunities. Saquon’s yards per attempt have dropped by almost two whole yards, and that is not just a Saquon issue. He is seeing 8+ defenders in the box 65% more often than last year, jumping from 20% of the time to 33% of the time. Barkley’s woes may be here to stay.

  • While he has been fighting, Tank Bigsby has been thriving. Only looking at this season, Bigsby has been the most efficient rusher in the league and has really been pressing on Eagles coaches (and fans) to give him more opportunities. It will be interesting to see if, after the collapse last week in which the offense could not string together positive plays reliably, the Eagles turn to the most efficient runner in the league to help.

Other Things to Peek At:

• The Buccaneers are in injury hell. Bucky looks to be coming back (even though Sean Tucker has been “The Bright Spot” for this team), but Baker went down with an injury, Godwin does not look like himself yet, and McMillan and Evans have no timetable quite yet. With all this commotion, it is hard to reliably trust anyone on this offense at the moment. It might be a good time to buy low in a couple of weeks if this continues.

• The Dolphins have an extremely favorable schedule down the stretch here and could play themselves into playoff contention. Keep an eye on some of their “other guys” like Malik Washington and Ollie Gordon, who could play big roles if given opportunities.

• I worry every Adam Schefter tweet that it’ll tell me that Justin Herbert has been hospitalized. This offensive line is garbage, but Omarion Hampton will be back this week. I think he may start off in more of a timeshare with Vidal, but that may not matter if the Chargers cannot generate an ounce of protection. If we see another pathetic week, it is time to start worrying about Chargers players for the rest of the year.

-- Dynasty Detour John

Running Back Roundabout: Who’s Headed Where?

Predicting big moves is imperative to making sure you can buy future point getters and sell your current stock before their value tanks. Here’s my read on what should be a very impactful free agency for the running back position, and what you should do about it.

The Landscape

The biggest-name backs to hit free agency this offseason include: Breece Hall, Javonte Williams, Travis Etienne, Tyler Allgeier, and Najee Harris. On top of that, I’m adding in D’Andre Swift, who I think the Bears will part with via team option, as well as Joe Mixon (same reason) and Aaron Jones, who I think the Vikings cut to save $8M in cap space. Removing these guys from their own depth charts, the most obvious running back landing spots become Kansas City, Dallas, Washington, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Chicago, Minnesota, and the New York Jets. Let the games begin…

Breece Hall ✈️ Kansas City Chiefs

Oh mama. Breece made it quite obvious as he watched his friends all leave for greener pastures at the trade deadline that he is sick of rotting on the Jets. I don’t know that the Chiefs come in as the highest bidder, but I think they’re going to put up enough to draw Hall away from less competitive destinations. The Andy Reid scheme has always coveted the athlete’s that can gash a team outside the tackles and in the passing game (think LeSean McCoy and 2017 Kareem Hunt). We might forget this because as of late he’s had to tolerate thumpers (think Isiah Pacheco and 2025 Kareem Hunt) due to investments at other positions. With the retirement of Travis Kelce on the horizon and a dip in the Chiefs’ successes in 2025, Kansas City will invest in the free agent class’ best. Look out league.

Dynasty Take: Is it a sure thing? No. God forbid the Jets try to cling onto Breece with a franchise tag and he starts thinking of sitting out. The likelihood of Breece to Kansas City is enough, however, to keep his value pretty high. Hall has finished as the RB2 overall while stuck on the Jets, and seems on pace to extend his streak to 3 straight years in the top 16. You get him in Ried’s hands with the threat of Rice and Worthy keeping defenses honest, and the sky’s the limit.

Javonte Williams ✈️ Washington Commanders

There’s a universe where Dallas meets the price tag to keep Williams, especially with the pressure that’ll be coming from fans when the salary cap forces them to let their best offensive player this year in George Pickens walk this offseason, but I think Washington will make Williams an offer he can’t refuse. (Side note: Is there a world where they move Lamb to resign GP? Probably not but if it happens just know I was the first to see it) While the allure of nabbing a rival’s running back in the next iteration of the Saquon deal might be motive enough for Washington, I think the pairing actually makes a lot of sense for the team as well. Javonte has done it all for Dallas this year, and though Bill Croskey-Merritt has looked okay, I think he profiles much more like a change-of-pace second fiddle than leading man.

Dynasty Take: This one feels a little less obvious to me than Breece to KC, but I think Javonte has also played his way into a situation where the team that grabs him will view him as top dog. 2-3 years in Washington could be huge for Williams, setting him up on productive offenses for the rest of his good years. I like buying Williams after the season when owners may panic about his future in Dallas, because anywhere he ends up will be solid. That said, remember one season isn’t enough to say we’re out of the woods on that injury history of his. 

Travis Etienne ✈️ Chicago Bears

Jacksonville has too much need elsewhere to even consider re-signing Etienne, who probably wants to explore other, less crowded RB rooms himself. I don’t think his contract will be particularly back-breaking, but at what I’m predicting to be a $9-10M AAV deal, he factors to be almost a 1:1 swap for D’Andre Swift cap-wise. Whereas Swift hasn’t done enough to avoid Ben Johnson cutting him loose for a second time in his career, I think Etienne’s pass catching ability and agility make him a more natural Monangai-compliment and more Johnson-friendly (pause).

Dynasty Take: We’ve seen since the emergence of Monangai as the bruiser in the offense that he is doing enough to keep Swift off the field as much as he was early in the year. Though I think Etienne’s output would be a step up enough to warrant slightly more work, we’re certainly not getting another RB3 overall season. Wherever Etienne goes, he should walk into a ~60% touch load. That will look a whole lot better in a Chicago offense still on the rise versus most other landing spots. Keep in mind if purchasing.

Tyler Allgeier ✈️ Pittsburgh Steelers

We’ve seen too often that a change-of-pace RB gets their solo shot and looks a whole lot less productive than they did in their 7 touches per game role. Go figure. I don’t believe that Allgeier is a candidate for this, however, at least in the right system. Pittsburgh OC Arthur Smith’s adoration for Allgeier is well documented, and he fits perfectly into the kind of smash-mouth mixed with random freak athleticism style Pittsburgh is all about these days. I think the Steelers try and keep Warren and Gainwell around and in the mix, but I think they’re aware neither has lead-the-backfield potential if they want a season-long rushing attack that defenses have to lock in for (might come in handy in the post-Rodgers era). Allgeier is their cheap solution.

Dynasty Take:  A friend once told me it looks like Najee Harris plays football with jeans on, and that may be true, but there was a time before that where he was the RB4 in fantasy football. I don’t think Allgeier is destined for that should he re-unite with Smith in Pittsburgh, but if he saw over 50% of touches in an offense close to this one (depends on new QB contributions), he finishes in the top 25 RBs for sure.

So What’s Left?

I think we’re left with two big questions: Who leads the way in Dallas, and who nabs Jeremiyah Love? My answer to the first is Dallas invests enough to land their pick of the cheap old men and tries to bring along Jaydon Blue, who has looked solid in flashes. I think their pick is Najee Harris. Though clunky, Harris is somehow NFL-effective. I say that because the nerd stuff about yards after this and expected that never has tipped Harris’ way, but he has a way of making plays still. Does he look the same post-injury? Maybe not, but he’s had a while to recover and the Cowboys need a warm body.

As for Love, I think the RB needy teams towards the very top of the draft (the Jets) go for the vets on minimum deals and invest their firsts at more integral positions. I think the Vikings try and get some pressure off J.J. “Nine” McCarthy and grab the class’ premiere weapon. Would be cinema.

-- Dynasty Detour Ryan

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