Week 14 Preview + Decoding Strong Finishes

It’s officially crunch time. With many leagues heading to playoffs next week, wins this week are huge for seeding or making the playoffs at all. Here’s some situations to watch this week, and a look at whether those players that finish this season uncharacteristically strong are worth your coin this offseason. Let’s hit the Detour.

🔮 Traffic Forecast

Here’s what I’m watching for in this consequential week ⬇️ 

Jaguars Wide Outs Gone Wild

• Brian Thomas Jr. returned last week, and unfortunately for managers picked up right where he left off with a 4.2 PPR point outing. Meanwhile, new addition Jakobi Meyers tacked on his third straight double digit outing (21.3) in as many games with the Jags. I still think it’s too early to write off Thomas in any way, but one of my offseason darlings in Meyers seems to be gearing up just in time for playoffs.

• Dynasty Take: As I said, Thomas is still a hold if not a buy for me, but I’m more interested in the potential realization that 29 year old Meyers still has the goods. Though his contract ends after this year, and Travis Hunter’s return next year may make Meyers lower on the Jags’ offseason priority list than we might hope, I think it goes to show that given the right opportunity Meyers can still be quite productive. I’ll be watching his output this week and through the playoffs to see just how consistent last year’s Mr. Consistency still is.

Ke-On the Field Again

• Keon Coleman was the subject of much attention after two healthy scratches on account of behavior and lack of production, but returned with a bang on Sunday with a big second half touchdown to open the gap to two scores. Coleman’s 8.9 point PPR performance was certainly nothing crazy, but his involvement last week coupled with positive buzz out of Buffalo give reason to think Coleman might be back to contributing ways. Coleman’s three targets are low, but were just one look back from Khalil Shakir and Dawson Knox (4) on Sunday.

• Dynasty Take: With the negative buzz and slow performances since his hot start, Coleman’s price is pretty low. He’s certainly not a buy candidate of mine, but he’s not someone I mind holding or as a throw in to level a trade for other acquisitions. Buffalo might address receiver this offseason via the draft, but Coleman as a dart throw isn’t the worst shout.

Shedeur Starts Again

• Shedeur Sanders seems to have the Browns job as long as he can hold onto it, and two half decent starts in (alongside some Dillon Gabriel locker room drama courtesy of his fiancée) he looks good to hold it through season’s end. Though he has not yet inspired in fantasy, I’ll definitely be tuned in as Sanders gets another start under his belt not only to see if he makes strides from his first few outings, but also who he favors amongst his weapons.

• Dynasty Take: Sanders will face a battle to hold this job this offseason barring a spectacular finish to the season, but he certainly could win the training camp showdown this time around. A young quarterback with starting job potential is never a bad grab, and with a good showing this week and finishing out the year, it’s officially perfect timing to purchase. Owners may not be thrilled with his immediate output or long-term security, and I’m sure buzz this offseason will at some point read that Watson has his foot back in the door or Gabriel has the locker room on his side. Then it’s time to pounce. As for his weapons, Isaiah Bond and Harold Fannin Jr. seem to be the favorites in this low volume offense. Jerry Jeudy has had some looks, but he and Cedric Tillman are certainly not connecting with Shedeur much at this juncture. Not good looks.

-- Dynasty Detour Ryan

Who’s Stepping Up?

It’s not uncommon for us to see players catch a surge around season’s end as approaches and lineups change due to a need to win, or lack thereof. Especially with younger players, sometimes things just start clicking. But can you trust it going into next year?

We have entered a special time of year. The leaves have fallen, every Macy’s (and McDonald’s for some reason) is adorned with wreaths and lights. It is truly amazing how so many people from various walks of life can come together to celebrate such a joyous and special time of year… the fantasy football playoffs. It’s where terrific seasons can crumble in an instant because of a devastating injury or a guy who has barely played all year can become a legend, the much sought after “playoff riser”. Being a resident of North Carolina, I have heard many legends about the great Ricky Proehl. This was a guy who did not even make the playoffs until he was 30 years old, and never had more than 500 yards with any of his playoff teams. However, he has had a touchdown in every playoff run, including the famous catch to send the “Greatest Show on Turf” to the 1999 Super Bowl and a game-tying catch against the Dynasty Patriots in the last minute for the Carolina Panthers. Imagine if there was a fantasy player who we knew would get a touchdown every single game of the fantasy playoffs? The playoffs can also be a time for players to put themselves in the national spotlight. HOFer Larry Fitzgerald thrust himself into the national spotlight with his godlike Super Bowl run in 2007, where he racked up 546 yards and 7 touchdowns. He made 8/9 pro bowls the next 9 years after only making 1 over his first 4, despite dominating since his rookie year. The spotlight of the playoffs led to all the media recognition, and became the launching pad for his career.

So, how does this translate to fantasy football? Much like Larry, we are hopeful that when one of our players has this end of season breakout, it is less of a fluke and a sign of things to come. I can pull from my recent memory and think of some younger guys who have had awesome finishes the last couple of years, but that has not always translated to a linear upward trajectory thereafter.  Are these postseason runs more often flukes? Can they be predicted at all? Let’s dig in:

The Process

To start, I grabbed the fantasy scoring statistics from the last 4 seasons, breaking down each player into their week by week fantasy totals (doing half PPR here). I then calculated the scoring average for each player (who played in at least half of the fantasy regular season games and ⅔ playoff games) and ordered them by scoring average per game. Then, I filtered down to players whose average increased by at least 25% from fantasy regular season to postseason. I also wanted to make sure I looked  at ranking changes too, so I only grabbed RB’s and WR”s who broke into the top 12  and the same for QB’s and TE’s breaking into the top 6. And voila, we are left with a list of 69 players/seasons (nice) who fit my criteria of “breaking out” during the fantasy postseason. Time to see how they did: 

Quarterbacks

I think out of all the positions, quarterback’s playoff success clearly had the best predictability for a stock increase. In 2021, Joe Burrow increased his scoring output by 10 points over the playoff weeks, finishing as the number 1 QB over that stretch. Tom Brady, Kirk Cousins, Dak Prescott, and Daniel Jones turned in 20+ PPG stretches in 2022. Lamar Jackson became the top fantasy QB in 2023 for the playoffs after a slower start and Baker Mayfield did not lag far behind while Jared Goff was the only QB to leap up last year. Of the 8 quarterbacks, 4 pulled in a top 5 performance the following season (Burrow, Dak, Lamar, and Baker), 1 GOAT retired, Goff is on pace for a top 10 finish this year and Cousins and Danny Dimes suffered season ending injuries (although Kirk was trending for a top 6 finish his year). Every way you slice it, Danny Dimes seems to be the exception, not the norm. Buy the QB’s who star down the stretch.

Running Backs

Unlike QB play, running back play can come down to “right place, right time” for the fantasy playoffs. That can certainly be said about the plethora of Patriots’ running backs who would have insane breakouts randomly every other year (you will be remembered Sony Michel, Damien Harris, and Rex Burkhead). However, this group is not all nonsense. Of the 24 running backs, James Conner appeared here 3 years in a row, from 2022 to 2024. It is unfortunate that he could not defend his title this season. Additionally, there were 11 RB seasons where a running back jumped from RB2 territory (top 25, but outside the top 12) and finished as a RB1 (top 12) in the playoffs. 8 of those seasons resulted in a top 20 finish the next season. It does seem like a late season jump from middle of the pack to elite production does carry over (Looks like this might be the buy criteria). Bucky Irving and James Conner were unable to defend their titles due to injury, leaving Damien Harris’ RB1 run in the 2021 playoffs as the lone failure to turn a playoff rise into further success. RIP (at least fantasy wise) to a real one.

Wide Receivers

Going into this, I figured that this category would show some of the biggest jumps in production, as rookie receivers or young guys were finally given opportunities and started to get a handle of their team’s offensive schemes. There were 27 seasons who fit my criteria and this group contained some of the wildest jumps in production, with nothing topping Amari Cooper’s absurd 2023 fantasy postseason where he jumped from sub 10 points a night to 32.45. Again, there are some repeat offenders; Davante Adams, Devonta Smith, Chris Godwin and Tee Higgins each make a couple appearances. However, this group showed some very good consistency, with 8 of the 27 seasons followed up by a WR1 finish the next year (soon to be 9 with the way Adams is producing this year). With another 7 finishing the WR2 range and 4 removed due to injuries the following season , it does seem like there is some correlation between these strong finishes and following season’s production. It is fun looking in here and seeing guys like Devonta Smith or Amon-Ra in their rookie year breakout down the stretch, but for everyone of those, you have a Jahan Dotson fakeout WR1 campaign from 2022. Overall though, about 70% of these risers finish WR2 or higher the following season, these seem fairly indicative.

Tight Ends

More than almost any other position, a TE can have a really random 3 week stretch. Because they are so TD dependent (especially for those TE hanging around the edge of TE1 range), I thought it would be harder to gain real insight. Turns out… I was absolutely right. Of the 10 tight ends who fit the criteria, only one was able to turn in anything close to a similar performance the next year and it is, “the best all-around player in the league”, Taysom Hill. His 2021 year was when he got some run at QB and basically gifted his managers a title if used correctly, whereas he just had normal good TE production in 2022. All these other guys seem to have just struck some scoring luck for a bit before coming down to earth. I would not try and buy into any Linsanity runs from TE’s, but I sure hope your team can find one!

-- Dynasty Detour John

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