Week 16 Preview + Start/Sit Gospel

Your regular Thursday duo of Dynasty Detour’s Ryan and John are here to spit some knowledge on the week ahead. Definitely worth a read seeing as we’re the only two left in the only league the staff is in together. Sorry Jesse and Tom. Anyway... Let’s hit the Detour.

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Some Week 16 situations and stocks to watch this weekend ⬇️ 

We are one week away from championship week, and for a lot of you out there… it is probably just another week. I know for myself, my scrappy “I thought I was rebuilding but then I started winning some games” team suffered a wild card loss. Even so, I am proud of the team. I had about 15 trade conversations stall out, 24 start/sit blunders, and used way too much of my FAAB on Parker Washington (he is still a dog). But, just because I cannot win the ship does not mean I can rest, because there is a lot we can still learn over these last couple weeks, starting with this weekend.

Josh Downs Swept In the River

• Philip Rivers was somehow not awful last weekend after arriving overweight with 5 years since his last game, and while seeming to mix up some of the Colt’s offensive looks. A lot of his volume was short yardage and inside the sticks, where Josh Downs should thrive. Although he was targeted only 5 times last week, that made up a greater target share than we’ve seen in past weeks and coincided with a higher snap count as well.

• Dynasty Take: Compared to last season, Downs has been a major disappointment, but these next 3 weeks could be the opportunity he has been looking for to reassert himself in this offense. Rivers isn’t going to be there long term, but with a championship now in Indy’s sights, tough decisions this offseason need to tip Downs’ way to save his stock price. Keep an eye out for his closing statement.

Miami Speedsters in a Ewer Situation

• I am not super optimistic when it comes to Quinn Ewers’ long term future in the NFL. His good footwork and sound simple decision making more fits the mold of an early 2010’s QB, but he does not as far as we know possess the ability to stretch the pocket. I do know from his time at Texas that he is good at two things: taking advantage of speedy WRs and throwing checkdowns.  The names Xavier Worthy and Matthew Golden may not look too tasty for fantasy owners at the moment, but there was a reason they, along with Jonathan Brooks and Jaydon Blue, were drafted and sought after products. Ewers and the Texas offense knew how to best position these speed demons, and when I think of the NFL offense that most closely resembles them, nothing sticks out more than Miami.

• Dynasty Take: The Dolphins have a bunch of weapons who have been kept in check most of the year. The season long play with Tua under center is 47 yards. Ewers has thrown the ball 8 times and has a season long of 40. I think, regardless of how the actual play from him is, McDaniel is going to unload the clip these last couple of weeks. Let’s see what top speed guys like Jaylen Waddle, Malik Washington, De’Von Achane, and Jaylen Wright can reach.

Coker Feeling Bryce-y?

• I know not many eyeballs were tuned into the Panthers-Saints game last week in what was expected to be a routine Panther’s win, but with Bryce Young at QB, anything is possible. And I mean that as literally as I can, I have no idea what to expect from this guy week to week. However, amidst a lost season last year, I was wowed by one of their rookie receivers last year, and it was not their first round pick Xavier Legette. Jalen Coker just seems like he has all the tools to be an elite slot guy in this league for years to come. I bought a lot of stock in the offseason, thinking that he would take over completely for Thielen before he suffered an injury. I think this stretch over the next couple weeks could be huge.

• Dynasty Take: Coker has rattled off 2 top-24 finishes the last two weeks he has played (4-74-1 & 4-60-1) and with three games down the stretch here with a playoff spot on the line, he will need to play a big role. I hope Bryce lets him.

-- Dynasty Detour John

Start/Sit Week 16

Don’t worry, we’re still first and foremost a Dynasty Fantasy Football publication, but how useful is some trade advice or a deep dive into long term projections going to be to you right now. Let’s talk Start/Sit in a season defining week for many of us.

If you’re like me you’re probably looking at your flex spots waiting for Mike Evans’ or R.J. Harvey’s profile picture to start talking to you. I figured I’d put some leg work in for all of us and rank all the running backs and wide receivers you may be tossing and turning over as best I can, and hopefully give some answers. I’ll list the guys in my exact order, if I had to give one, but will be putting in tier breaks as well. If you like one guy below another in a tier, go with your gut.

The Elites

If you’re looking for Christian McCaffrey or Jaxson Smith-Njigba’s ranking, I’ll save you the time and eliminate the current must-start top-8 guys at each position. If you’re in the position to be deciding between starting or sitting Jahmyr Gibbs or De’Von Achane, you’re either in a league too small and weak to be worth sweating, or you’re so good at this shit that I simply can’t help you.

And yes, RB5 De’Von Achane (Ewers), WR4 George Pickens (slow last few weeks), and TE5 Tyler Warren (Rivers) are still all starts.

Tier 1

Obviously some guys will disappoint, but these guys have to be started, no doubt

• TreVeyon Henderson @ BAL

• Travis Etienne @ DEN

• AJ Brown @ WAS

• Derrick Henry vs NE

• Saquon Barkley @ WAS

• Josh Jacobs @ CHI

• Ladd McConkey @ DAL

• Wan’Dale Robinson vs MIN

Not much to say. Anyone here with a tough matchup is so insulated through talent and usage I think they’re absolute must starts. Wan’Dale may not be in this tier of talent, but usage and likely game script put him above this next group by a hair.

Tier 2

A tier largely of top-producers this year with tough matchups/situations and late season breakouts I’m not all the way sold on for this week

• Omarion Hampton @ DAL

• Tet McMillan vs TB

• Jaylen Waddle vs CIN

• CeeDee Lamb vs LAC

• Woody Marks vs LV

• Bucky Irving @ CAR

• Rashee Rice @ TEN

• Courtland Sutton vs JAX

• Jameson Williams @ PIT

• Mike Evans @ CAR

• Justin Jefferson vs NYG

• DK Metcalf @ DET

• Terry McLaurin vs PHI

• Breece Hall vs NO

• Zay Flowers vs NE

• Jakobi Meyers @ DEN

• DJ Moore vs GB

Omarion’s back. Gaining back usage every week and I think the Chargers are going to run the ball early with success and not stop. Lamb is obviously the surprise low-guy here. I think he still is a fine start on most lineups, but I actually feel he’s the more vulnerable Cowboys receiver in a matchup like this, and could be schemed out by a tough defense. Rashee Rice also may shock some, but a concussion is keeping him from getting valuable Minshew reps this week. I don’t love it.

Tier 3

Plenty of guys here still with considerable touchdown potential, and that might be what it takes to turn in an impactful performance, but still plenty of floor.

• Quinshon Judkins vs BUF

• D’Andre Swift vs GB

• Blake Corum @ SEA

• Kimani Vidal @ DAL

• Brian Thomas @ DEN

• Kenneth Gainwell @ DET

• Jaylen Warren @ DET

• Stefon Diggs @ BAL

• Keenan Allen @ DAL

• Bill Crosky-Merritt vs PHI

• Chuba Hubbard vs TB

• Ashton Jeanty @ HOU

• DeVonta Smith vs WAS

I give Gainwell the nod over Warren because of the receiving floor and a probable game script in favor of passing. After this, things are getting rough.

Tier 4

Still a bunch of guys that are at the top of the current depth chart for their rushing/passing attacks, but bad matchups, bad offenses, and overall week players make it hard to see a whole lot happening. Still, who knows.

• Jayden Reed @ CHI

• Jauan Jennings @ IND

• Deebo Samuel vs PHI

• Chris Godwin @ CAR

• David Montgomery vs PIT

• Ken Walker vs LAR

• Rico Dowdle vs TB

• Emeka Egbuka @ CAR

• Troy Franklin vs JAX

• Adonai Mitchell @ NO

• Khalil Shakir @ CLE

• Kareem Hunt @ TEN

• Kyle Monangai vs CAR

• Aaron Jones vs NYG

• Devin Singletary vs MIN

• Tyrone Tracy vs MIN

• Michael Pittman vs SF

• Jordan Addison @ NYG

• Michael Carter vs ATL

• Jerry Jeudy vs BUF

• Tony Pollard vs KC

• Rhamondre Stevenson @ BAL

I think Reed ends up being the guy for a Packers passing game that struggles, especially now without Christian Watson, but I don’t like the play much. Everyone after this is pretty much a lot cause, so we’ll cut it here. Good luck if there was a name you were still looking for.

-- Dynasty Detour Ryan

We’re officially in the swing of things, so be sure you follow us for all the must see events and reactions of every week. Follow us @dynastydetour on Instagram and X/Twitter to get our reactions and opinions in between write-ups, as well as email us with any questions at [email protected]. See you out on the road 🚘️.