Week 3 Preview + Rookie Redraft

Before Week 3 action kicks off we have gotta talk about some of the trends to monitor going in as these teams are shaking out and injuries are taking hold. Then, Tom’s turning in a way-too-early rookie redraft, and giving us his feel on the early perceptions of the starts for the league’s newest weapons… Let’s hit the Detour.

-- Dynasty Detour Ryan

🔮 Traffic Forecast

There’s plenty of players around the league that still haven’t shown us exactly what they’re going to give us all year long, but here are a few games and situations I will be tuning in to to get a pulse on who to count on and who to swerve to avoid

🐎 The Broncos Ball Movement

The gates opened Week 1 and a few horses emerged. Courtland Sutton was the obvious favorite in the passing attack, and picked up right where he left off catching yet another touchdown (5 in the last 6 weeks of 2024). Week 2 took a completely different tone, however, as Bo Nix locked in on his former college number 1 in Troy Franklin, throwing touchdowns to he, Marvin Mims, and Adam Trautman. Sutton’s snap count fell nearly 20% and his targets fell from 9 to 4. There was only one game last year where Sutton had 4 or less targets. Here’s what I’m checking out ⬇️ 

Does Sutton go back to number 1?

Does Troy Franklin build off finally putting it together in the pros with Nix?

Can Engram put it together like we thought he would?

My guesses? Sutton will bounce back, Franklin regresses towards the mean, but becomes the consistent number 2 WR, and Engram’s numbers will rise. We’ll just have to wait until Sunday to see.

 🦅 Do the Birds Take to the Air?

The Eagles passing offense has looked nothing short of anemic through two weeks, reminiscent to me as a fan of our 2023 scheme under OC Brian Johnson. Through two weeks, Philadelphia’s top two receiving weapons in A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith have seen 9 targets each, many of them short, high percentage passes with very little potential for big points. The addition of Saquon Barkley last year certainly changed the Eagles’ approach to passing the ball… as in they started doing it way less, but this is a new low for not only the attempts, but the potential of the attack as well. A.J. Brown has not had a 2 week stretch with this few targets since joining the Birds, though it is worth noting that 8 of his 9 targets came last week, certainly a ramp up. Here’s what I’m looking for against a tough Rams D ⬇️

Does A.J. Brown maintain a high target floor, and do we see the patented deep shots and red zone opportunities that made him a viable fantasy option in multiple run first offenses?

Can the team demonstrate a passing offense that keeps Jalen Hurts’ floor high enough without multiple rushing TDs?

If I had to speculate, we’ll see Brown get his first double digit performance of the year on yards and receptions alone, probably with a touchdown as well. As for Hurts’ output outside of that, I think this scheme is uninspired and predictable in a way that will take multiple weeks to fix. It very well can happen relatively soon, though.

1️⃣ Individuals

There are also some individuals I will be giving extra attention this week. With multiple quarterback injuries, there are a lot of performances that may be different from what we expect, but shouldn’t be representative of the norm. That said, I will be watching…

• Kyren Williams - Williams’ workload hasn’t dropped much if at all from what it was last season, but Blake Corum seeing the goal line rush that led to a touchdown does worry me. Williams’ bread and butter these last couple seasons has been scoring often, and if touches in the red zone start to get shared, things could turn really mid for him really fast.

• Brian Thomas Jr. - Clips of BTJ dropping passes in traffic and shying away from contact have circulated like crazy this week. This is definitely worrying if it continues.

• Terry McLaurin - McLaurin was one of my biggest buys this offseason, but has struggled to turn in the WR1 performances he did so regularly last season. Deebo Samuel’s involvement is certainly a factor, but this offense should in theory be able to support them both. I want to see him find the end zone again, like he did so regularly last year.

Many of the biggest names in rookie drafts this year have had either very hot or very cold starts as well and definitely warrant some monitoring to see if they continue, but Tom will be getting into that below (though I will say I’m still a Loveland truther).

-- Dynasty Detour Ryan

📝  Way-Too-Early Rookie Redraft

2 weeks into the season, we take a look at how the draft would play out today. First round of a 10-team superflex rookie draft below… ⬇️ 

Round 1, Pick 1: Ashton Jeanty

 30 carries, 81 rushing yards, 1 touchdown

No changes here! The hit rate of 1st round running backs is staggering. It gets even better when you look at top 15 picks, with 42% having multiple top 12 seasons. The early season struggles have been frustrating, but not surprising considering the struggles of Las Vegas last season. He’s a generational talent and he will be fine. Oh yeah, and he’s still the 1.01.

Round 1, Pick 2: Tet McMillan

11 receptions, 168 receiving yards

Another player with top ten draft capital… and this guy is looking dangerous. Egbuka may be getting more hype, but Tet is getting more targets (19), more catches, and more receiving yards… he just hasn’t found the end zone yet. With little competition for targets, expect Tet to be Bryce Young’s go-to-guy. This year, and beyond.

Round 1, Pick 3: Tyler Warren

 11 receptions, 155 receiving yards

We’ve talked a lot about Warren in recent newsletters, but wow has he delivered. After breaking the rookie record for receptions by a TE, he made a few more explosive plays in week 2. With Daniel Jones at the helm, the Colts offense is humming, and Warren is looking like the #1 guy.

Round 1, Pick 4: Emeka Egbuka

 8 receptions, 96 receiving yards, 3 receiving touchdowns

Speaking of Egbuka… he’s elevated his way into a sure-fire top 4 pick. With injuries to Chris Godwin & Jalen McMillan, an opportunity opened for Egbuka to be a more significant part of the offense. With 3 TDs in two weeks, the hype train has taken off 🚂. The volume hasn’t been on the same level as Tet, but the efficiency has been more than anyone could ask for.

Round 1, Pick 5: Omarion Hampton

 23 carries, 72 rushing yards

Another first round running back with a disappointing yards per carry. The highly touted Hampton seemingly slotted into a perfect system, pairing up with Greg Roman’s run heavy scheme in LA. It has not panned out so far, but I’m not panicking just yet. Keep in mind, Jeanty and Hampton are top 6 in broken tackle rate. First round running backs have too great of hit rates for me to worry after game 2 of his career.

Round 1, Pick 6: TreVeyon Henderson

 8 carries, 31 rushing yards, 8 receptions

After a preseason with fireworks, including an electric kickoff return for a TD, Henderson has not quite created the same fireworks through 2 weeks. If you can spot a trend, I still believe in these well-invested RBs eventually getting the volume to find fantasy success. Matching Egbuka in receptions as an RB is very promising for Hendy going forward.

Round 1, Pick 7: Cam Ward

 287 passing yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs

The Titans handed Ward the keys immediately, and he’s shown flashes of why he was the #1 overall pick. Accuracy has been an issue early, with a sub-51% completion rate, but he’s avoided turnovers and kept the offense afloat. The arm talent is obvious, and as he adjusts to NFL speed, the splash plays will come. Growing pains are expected, but there’s no reason to panic.

 Round 1, Pick 8: Quinshon Judkins

 10 carries, 61 rushing yards

The off-the-field situation was awful, but with the contract being signed we got our first dose of Judkins in the Browns offense. He looks like he’s going to be the guy, but I’d expect Sampson to own some passing work. Despite that, another lead back is enough to land Judkins at #8 in the redraft.

 Round 1, Pick 9: Travis Hunter

 9 receptions, 55 receiving yards

In Week 2, Hunter played 42 snaps on offense and 43 on defense, and that’s the problem. Dynasty managers need offensive output, and splitting time this evenly caps both his ceiling and his floor. The raw talent is still there, but unless his role shifts heavily toward offense, he may never deliver on the WR1 upside we hoped for. The talent is undeniable, keeping him in the top 10, but the snap share is concerning for dynasty purposes.

Round 1, Pick 10: Jaxson Dart

2 phenomenal handoffs 🚀 

We covered Dart’s excellent preseason extensively in a few of our Preseason Pulse newsletters. That success is enough to put him into our top ten, especially with the lack of success from Matthew Golden, Colston Loveland and others.

-- Dynasty Detour Tom

We’re officially in the swing of things, so be sure you follow us for all the must see events and reactions of every week. Follow us @dynastydetour on Instagram and X/Twitter to get our reactions and opinions in between write-ups, as well as email us with any questions at [email protected]. See you out on the road 🚘️.