Week 7 Preview + Rashee Mania

The season has been flying by, and Rashee Rice’s suspension has came and gone faster than he drives. After this week we’ll be officially halfway through leagues with a 14 week regular season, and every decision is starting to count. Let’s hit the Detour.

🔮 Traffic Forecast

With every passing week trends become more and more convincing, as new player outlooks take shape. Here’s what I’m watching for some guys still unproven, for better or worse. ⬇️ 

🟠 New-Look Browns Show Their Identity

The Miami Dolphins make their way to Cleveland this week and bring with them their putrid defense. While not exactly a matchup that tests this young offense, it will likely provide a unique opportunity for the new look offense to play to its true identity after two very different weeks to start the Gabriel era.

• Gabriel & the Pass Game - After two tough matchups, what will the pass attack show us

  • Through his first two weeks Gabriel has played two very different games (33 attempts & 2 TDs vs. MIN Week 5, 53 attempts & 0 TDs vs PIT Week 6). Despite the jump in attempts, the touchdowns obviously fell, and not all receiving weapons saw a boost in usage. Jerry Jeudy and Harold Fannin saw season highs in targets, while David Njoku and Isaiah Bond saw considerable drop offs in usage despite the 19 more opportunities to go around. Not only will we learn more about Gabriel’s red zone involvement and who we expect to be his favorites going forward, but also a read on how successful and long-lived Gabriel’s stint is going to be.

  • Dynasty Take: It’s not going to be very successful, nor is this offense going to even think about being a pass-first group if game script doesn’t dictate it. Gabriel having a good game would indicate to me that he will flash enough to see the season out, but he is not the face of this franchise. While he’s the starter though, I do trust Jeudy and Fannin to be his go-to’s.

     

• Quinshon Judkins - The supposed bell-cow’s usage is all over the place since the QB switch

  • In the last two weeks Judkins has seen the most and least productive weeks of his young career. While game script obviously steered last week, it is important to figure out whether this offense is one that can keep itself in games, and make sure Judkins is the go-to weapon in it. Who gets the ball and how much, especially in the red zone, are what I’m most interested in seeing as I evaluate Judkins going forward.

  • Dynasty Take: My feelings on Judkins’ talent haven’t changed since the offseason, and I also trust that no matter who is under center that Judkins is supposed to be the focal point. That should continue in this one and I expect Judkins to look a lot more like he did in Gabriel’s debut (23 carries, 110 yards) than he did last week (12 carries, 36 yards).

⚫️ Which Cat Leads the Pack?

Rice Dowdle has become the 6th running back in the Super Bowl era to have two straight games of 225+ scrimmage yards and a touchdown. It came against the two worst defenses in the league, but impressive nonetheless. 2024 darling Chuba Hubbard returns this week, leaving the previously stalling Panthers offense with a choice to make.

• Chuba Hubbard – Is the 2024 RB14 now the odd man out?

  • Hubbard was never an unbelievable talent, and you may remember this offseason I was not thrilled with the way he ended last season anyway. After a decent start to this one, a calf injury left the backfield in the hands of Rico Dowdle for the last two weeks. The rest was history. Where does this leave us?

  • Dynasty Take: This is going to be interesting. I don’t think either back is particularly elite, but I think a Panthers team that was having serious questions before the favorable matchups will have a tough time flipping things back to the way they were, especially if the offense stalls. I think Dowdle has a role at or near 40-50% for the next few weeks. Whoever captures a red zone role is the back to own and the only reliable start between the two. Ever since Hubbard’s emergence last year, the running back here in Carolina has lived and died by the touchdowns. Sacrificing touches is going to make that even more obvious. My money’s on Dowdle between the two, just barely.

-- Dynasty Detour Ryan

🔴 Rashee Rice Is BACK

It is a day that many fantasy managers have been waiting for. If you’re one of those that has been on this long haul, congrats 🎉 

After a slow start to his rookie season, Rice’s production really took off over the back half of the season. In his last 6 games of his rookie year, he led the Chiefs in all receiving categories, totaling 43 receptions on 54 targets on his way to 518 yards and 3 touchdowns. That production did not slow down come the start of 2024, where Rice exploded for 24 receptions on 29 targets with no drop in his efficiency at all. Unlike some top receivers (Ahem, Chris Olave) who are force fed the ball with limited production, Rice maintained a YPR of over 12 yards per reception. His YAC was first in the NFL through 3 weeks, his target share lead the league, and he looked like the steal for people who weren’t dissuaded by the target share Xavier Worthy would garner. However, after just 3 games, his season was over. With his off the field issues, we have now been a full 20 games since the last time we saw Rashee Rice take the field. A lot has changed, not just in the landscape of the league, but with the Chiefs as well. How should we value him now that he is coming back and what should we expect?

The Value: Rashee Rice is currently valued as a top 15-20 receiver at the moment across a variety of sources. I have already highlighted above what makes him such an intriguing prospect for dynasty owners. Although he does not share the same speed (honestly his teammate is more similar in terms of play style), the obvious comparison to what his production could look like would be Tyreek Hill, Mahomes first WR1, who created a ton of yards after carry, was able to find gaps in the defense and became the reliable outside option for Mahomes. Tyreek finished every full season from 2017-2021 as a top 7 WR, and even as the overall WR1 in 2018. If Rashee can be the WR1 in a Mahomes offense, that should rocket him into fantasy stardom, but should that be expected right away.

Short Term: There have been many teams waiting on Rashee Rice to come in and save their season. I know this may not be an implication on how dynasty managers are dealing with the injury, but 70% of teams who drafted Rice in redraft leagues are below .500. That is insane. Being below .500 at this point means that teams who have drafted him NEED WR1 production from the jump for them to have hopes of turning around their season, but not having him has left a huge hole in many of these squads.

Meanwhile, the Chiefs offense has been picking up some steam while approaching Rashee’s return. They now rank top 10 in the league in both yards per pass attempt and per rush attempt. Injecting a playmaker like Rice should be a warm welcome. Juju and Tyquan Thornton have each taken up about 12% of the target share and Xavier Worthy is still trying to find his role a bit after being in and out with injury. BUT the reason this offense has been so great the last couple games has been because of the wealth share. Mahomes is playing at an MVP level again and has been spreading the wealth among all of his available targets which now include a receiver core that is about as deep as any that Mahomes has had in the past with the addition of Rice. Rice is an immense talent, but it may take a bit for him to really take that large target share that was shown through the first couple weeks last year.

Long term: Now, I am going to say something that could be highly controversial, but is important to remember about fantasy football: value lies in what the ceiling for a player or pick could hold. The reason draft picks, especially early 1st rounders are valued so highly within the dynasty community is because of what they could be. The temptation of what “lies behind door #2” can sometimes overshadow what might really be there. I think this is the situation with Rashee Rice right now. I genuinely do not know if his value will ever be higher than it is right now.

Let’s go back to our Tyreek Hill comparison. During his WR1 campaign, Tyreek only received 24.3% of the target share. He was not even leading the team, as Travis Kelce had 13 more targets over the course of the season. What Tyreek did have was an ability to extend plays and get down field with his share of targets. He averaged over 10 yards a target (10.8 to be exact) and 17 yards per reception which was top 2 in the league for high volume receivers (over 100 targets). That skill set did not vary year to year, staying above 9.5 from 2017–2020. Rice managed to match that number as well over his first 20 games, but his yards per reception were only about 12, much more like Travis Kelce’s career norms. If he can take over some of Travis’s responsibilities (who is still seeing 18% of the target share) while Worthy stretches the field vertically, I think owners would be happy to see that production.

That promise, of some blend of Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce is one of the most enticing trade pieces there can be. That is what is making Rice’s return so exciting for many managers, that promise. And with Mahomes at QB for eternity, it feels like he brings a semblance of consistency that does not exist with many other highly valued receivers like Jamaar or Jettas. In my mind, Rice’s potential and value will depreciate the minute he touches the field, as I think the bar that is being set for him across all formats is just too high. And if you check with other managers around your leagues, you may be surprised by some of the names and picks that get thrown your way.

-- Dynasty Detour John

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