Dynasty Detour 🚧

We’ve got mugshots before Sleeper headshots, a QB carousel in Seattle, and a dynasty theory so real it’s flashing hazard lights in your rebuild. From rookie red flags to veteran bargain-bin QBs, and one very uncomfortable conversation about accountability in the NFL — this week’s ride is bumpy but necessary. Let’s hit the Detour.

-- @dynastydetourtom

📝 Traffic Report

Quinshon Judkins looks to be following in the tracks of Joe Mixon & Kareem Hunt — and we’re not talking on the field…

Rookie RB Quinshon Judkins was arrested on July 12 in Fort Lauderdale, charged with misdemeanor battery/domestic violence. He was jailed overnight and is currently awaiting his first court appearance.

Judkins, the 36th overall pick in this year’s draft, was expected to step directly into Nick Chubb’s vacated early-down role in Cleveland. He’s also the only unsigned rookie from the Browns’ 2025 draft class — and rookies are scheduled to report to camp this Friday.

The team has acknowledged the incident and said it is “gathering more information.”

🧠 NFL Track Record

The sad truth: In nearly any other profession, violence — especially domestic violence — would mean losing your job. But in pro sports? If you’re talented enough, you keep your paycheck, your endorsements, and your platform. Until leagues like the NFL start holding players accountable in meaningful, consistent ways, we’re complicit in the message: talent outweighs harm.

If morally you don’t want Judkins on your roster — I get it. You’re not wrong for making that call. But for the purposes of this article, I’m going to set that aside and focus purely on where his dynasty value stands right now.

This is horrible news — no sugarcoating it — but short of a league-shaking revelation or NFL policy shift, a 4–6 game suspension seems more likely than a career derailment. With that in mind, there is no reason to panic sell Judkins.

📈 Opportunity Shift: Dylan Sampson

With Judkins’ status up in the air, 4th-round rookie Dylan Sampson becomes the immediate beneficiary:

• Explosive runner with natural hands

• Now in line for first-team reps during camp

• If he flashes? Things could get complicated — fast.

Sampson was already a high-upside stash. Now he’s a priority buy or hold across dynasty formats.

🚨 Dynasty Takeaway

• Judkins managers: Buckle up. Don’t sell low unless new information forces your hand.

• Sampson managers: You might’ve just landed a starting RB at a discount.

• The rest of us: Monitor legal updates closely — and don’t assume backfield stability in Cleveland anytime soon.

This isn’t a fun one to write, but it matters. Keep your eyes on camp — and on the court.

-- @dynastydetourtom

🚗 Veteran Vehicles

Some quarterbacks find themselves in new threads this year. How will they fair in their new situations?

🏴‍☠️ Geno Smith - Las Vegas Raiders

Smith was traded for by new Raiders HC Pete Carroll, the architect of Smith’s revival season in Seattle in 2022. Smith was QB5 that year… could we see his return to QB1 status?

• Short-term:

  • Scheme: Carroll and Smith were not afraid to throw the ball anywhere in 2022. Smith finished the year 8th in deep ball attempts, 10th in red zone attempts, but also displayed the efficiency of a west-coast style QB. Without a deep ball technician like D.K. Metcalf, we may see more of the short, efficient stuff, but they will definitely take their shots.

  • Situation: Ashton Jeanty will be used at a clip that justifies his sixth overall selection this year, but Bowers, Meyers, and Bech will provide enough to let this offense look the way Carroll will want it to.

• Long-term: Smith’s three year deal has a team option after year two that provides the Raiders an out before they need to pay Smith $40 million in his age 37 season in 2027. With Carroll already the league’s oldest head coach, this regime feels more like a bridge than a long term solution. 

Smith’s days of top 5 finishes are behind him, but at the price tag of ~QB29, or a late 2nd this or next year, Smith feels like a good value for 2 years of QB10-16 production.

🦆 Sam Darnold - Seattle Seahawks

After trading Smith, the Seahawks pounced on signing Darnold away from Minnesota as they hand the reigns to J.J. McCarthy. Darnold was in MVP conversations for most of the year before some struggle towards the end. Let’s see how things look in Seattle:

•  Short-term:

  • Scheme: HC Mike McDonald handed the offense to Klint Kubiak, luring him away from the dumpster fire that is the New Orleans Saints situation. Kubiak likes to build his offense out from the run, but his history with Kevin O’Connell may help him tap into what worked for Darnold most of last year. They will not be airing the ball out, but Darnold should do a solid job of manning the helm.

  • Situation: Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Cooper Kupp make up a respectable wide receiver room, but it is certainly a downgrade from Darnold. The YAC threat provided by both should help Darnold get points, but it will taper from last year. 

• Long-term: I’m less convinced of Darnold’s second act than Smith’s, especially with how he finished last year. Much of his contract is not guaranteed, and there is a team option in the second year. I’m not confident Seattle will find him to be their quarterback of the future.

However long he’s there, he will be in a lower scoring offense that uses the quarterback less and throwing to lesser weapons. He might have his weeks, but Darnold should not be your week-to-week superflex, at least before QB injuries around the league, and he is not a buy at QB26.

🟨 Aaron Rodgers - Pittsburgh Steelers

We’ve already discussed this Steelers offense more than most (see last week’s traffic report and D.K. Metcalf’s Pothole Patrol write-up), but in the wake of all the recent news and moves, Rodgers deserves one more look here. Let’s look at the outlook for his last dance:

• Short-term:

  • Scheme: HC Mike Tomlin and OC Arthur Smith will not be reinventing the wheel here. This is a team that will run the ball more than most and hope Jonnu Smith, Pat Freiermuth, and whoever steps up at WR2 can keep the defense honest enough that Metcalf can work downfield.

  • Situation: The supporting cast is a downgrade from his time at the Jets, but not by a whole lot. I expect the screen game to be used as an extension of the run game, as both Arthur Smith and Mike Tomlin have a history of employing, so Rodgers should pick some points up there. Metcalf, Smith, and Freiermuth are all red zone weapons as well, so a higher-than-expected share of the touchdowns could come through the air on a run heavy offense.

• Long-term: Unless you’re in a PPT league (points per trip), Rodgers won’t be scoring for you after this year. This is a one year purchase. 

Rodgers is likely already owned by a contender in your league, but with his trade calculator value falling in the range of a late 27 3rd, this is probably the cheapest 10-13 points per game you can purchase. Certainly worth a look if you’re in need of a QB3.

Quarterbacks like Daniel Jones, Russell Wilson/Jameis Winston, and others can all be bought for cheap, but if I’m adding depth to my quarterback room and gearing up for a championship push, I want to make sure the position is addressed and I’m not buying again during the year. Smith and Rodgers are both values at their price tag, and would make fine rotation pieces to any superflex quarterback room.

 -- @dynastydetourryan

 🧠 Driver’s ED: Dynasty Theory Deep Dive

The 525 Rule Strikes Again — But Will These Rookies Strike Back?

In the short but chaotic history of Dynasty Fantasy Football degeneracy, one rule keeps flashing its lights in the rearview mirror:

Let’s get into it.

🔎 What Is the 525 Rule?

It’s not a death sentence, but it is a dashboard warning. WRs who don’t reach 525 yards as rookies rarely become consistent fantasy starters. It’s not about real-life success — it’s about future top-36 Half-PPR seasons (my estimated threshold for fantasy football relevance), and the data is surprisingly clear.

I pulled five seasons’ worth of rookie WR data (2019–2023), focusing only on Day 1 and Day 2 picks. Here’s what I found:

📊 5-Year Snapshot (2019–2023)

• 42 WRs drafted in the top 3 rounds failed to hit 525 yards
  → Only 5 (12%) had even one top-36 Half-PPR season afterward
   

• 32 WRs did hit 525+ yards
  → 23 (72%) had a top-36 season later

   

📌 Takeaway:

The 525 Rule is very real. On average, just one player per year breaks the rule. The odds are brutal — unless there’s context.

🛠️ Past Rule Breakers (And Why They Broke It)

📌 Pattern:

With the exception of Van Jefferson’s fringe WR36 finish, the real rule-breakers usually missed time due to injury — not talent or role.

🏁 2024’s Rule-Breaker Candidates (All Missed 525 Yards)

Despite falling short of the 525-yard rookie threshold, these three players showed enough flashes in 2024 to warrant breakout consideration — especially if opportunity and health improves.

🔹 Ricky Pearsall (49ers)

• 2024 Stats: 31 receptions, 400 yards, 3 TDs in 11 games
  

• Why he fell short: Sidelined first six games after being shot, plus hamstring/shoulder issues
  

• Case for being a Rule-Breaker: Showed high upside when healthy—including a 141-yard, 1-TD game in Week 17. First-round athletic pedigree, fits Shanahan’s offense, expected to be competing for top receiver spot given injuries to Aiyuk and others.
  

🔹 Jalen McMillan (Buccaneers)

• 2024 Stats: 37 receptions, 461 yards, 8 TDs on 58 targets in 13 games
  

• Why he fell short: Missed games due to a hamstring and inconsistent usage early in the season
  

• Case for being a Rule-Breaker: Scored 8 TDs and posted strong efficiency, especially late in the season. Solid rapport with QB Mayfield in high-leverage spots. But, will face increased target competition from rookie Egbuka and veterans Evans and Godwin who should be more healthy than at the end of last year.
  

🔹 Roman Wilson (Steelers)

• 2024 Stats: No production due to injuries, 1 game played
  

• Why he fell short: Injuries (ankle, hamstring) derailed his year; never got a consistent role
  

• Case for being a Rule-Breaker: Last year’s pre-draft buzz was high—he’s fast and explosive. Steelers need WR depth. If he stays healthy and earns targets, he could emerge in 2025.

   
  

🛑 Final Take

The 525 Rule isn’t perfect, but the trend is loud and clear. Most Day 1 and 2 WRs who don’t hit the mark as rookies flame out for fantasy. But every year, one guy breaks the rule — usually because he missed time due to injury and had the pedigree to bounce back.

📍Will Pearsall, McMillan, or Wilson be this year’s exception?

Don’t bet your whole rebuild on it — but they’re worthy bounce-back candidates for any dynasty driver who likes to play the long game.

 -- @dynastydetourjesse

That’s all for now — class dismissed. Thanks for riding along with Driver’s Ed and @dynastydetourjesse. Stay tuned for another Preseason Pulse newsletter this time next week, and be sure to follow us @dynastydetour on Instagram and X/Twitter to get our reactions and opinions in between issues, as well as email us with any questions at [email protected]. See you out on the road 🚘️.